Risk factors associated with rural water supply failure: A 30-year retrospective study of handpumps on the south coast of Kenya
Risk factors associated with rural water supply failure: A 30-year retrospective study of handpumps on the south coast of Kenya
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.302
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发表时间：
2018-06-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Hope, Rob
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Foster, Tim;Willetts, Juliet;Hope, Rob
加强对撒哈拉以南非洲农村地区供水中断风险的了解，对于实现到2030年人人享有安全饮用水的全球目标至关重要。在缺乏纵向生物物理和操作数据的情况下，到目前为止，对供水点故障风险因素的调查仅限于横断面研究设计。这项回溯性队列研究应用生存分析来确定自20世纪80年代以来安装在肯尼亚南海岸钻孔上的手泵的故障风险预测因素。该分析基于一个独特的数据集，该数据集将安装时的>；300个水点的属性与它们在接下来的几十年中的使用寿命联系起来。COX比例风险和加速失效时间模型表明，当供水盐度更高、静态水位更深、地下水从松散的砂岩含水层中抽出时，水点失效风险更高，寿命更短。随着与零部件供应商的距离增加，故障风险似乎也在增加。为了加强农村供水服务的可持续性，并确保不落下任何社区，建设后支助机制将需要缓解各种环境和地理挑战。需要进一步研究，以便更好地了解这些风险因素背后的因果关系，以便为确保即使在不利条件下也能维持供水服务的政策和做法提供信息。(C)2018爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
An improved understanding of failure risks for water supplies in rural sub-Saharan Africa will be critical to achieving the global goal of safe water for all by 2030. In the absence of longitudinal biophysical and operational data, investigations into water point failure risk factors have to date been limited to cross-sectional research designs. This retrospective cohort study applies survival analysis to identify factors that predict failure risks for handpumps installed on boreholes along the south coast of Kenya from the 1980s. The analysis is based on a unique dataset linking attributes of > 300 water points at the time of installation with their operational lifespan over the following decades. Cox proportional hazards and accelerated failure time models suggest water point failure risks are higher and lifespans are shorter when water supplied is more saline, static water level is deeper, and groundwater is pumped from an unconsolidated sand aquifer. The risk of failure also appears to grow as distance to spare part suppliers increases. To bolster the sustainability of rural water services and ensure no community is left behind, post-construction support mechanisms will need to mitigate heterogeneous environmental and geographical challenges. Further studies are needed to better understand the causal pathways that underlie these risk factors in order to inform policies and practices that ensure water services are sustained even where unfavourable conditions prevail. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.