Global trends and predictions in hepatocellular carcinoma mortality
Global trends and predictions in hepatocellular carcinoma mortality
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhep.2017.03.011
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发表时间：
2017-08-01
影响因子：
25.7
通讯作者：
Negri, Eva
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bertuccio, Paola;Turati, Federica;Negri, Eva
背景与目标：近几十年来，大多数国家的肝细胞癌 (HCC) 死亡率呈上升趋势。它也是全球癌症死亡的第三大原因。本研究的目的是更新到 2014 年的全球 HCC 死亡率趋势，并预测到 2020 年欧盟、美国和日本的死亡率趋势。方法：分析了世界卫生组织数据库中 1990-2014 年期间 HCC 的死亡证明数据。包括 16 个欧洲国家、5 个美洲国家和全球其他 6 个国家，以及整个欧盟。结果：欧洲男性的死亡率在过去十年中保持稳定（3.5/100,000）。北欧和中欧的 HCC 死亡率上升，南欧则下降。在美国，2002 年至 2012 年间，HCC 死亡率增加了 35%，2012 年达到 3.1/100,000 男性；预计到 2020 年将保持稳定。东亚的死亡率有所下降，但仍保持在 10-24/100,000 名男性左右。在日本，HCC 死亡率预计将下降（2020 年为 5.4/100,000 名男性）。趋势对年轻人有利，但对中年人不利，东亚除外。在大多数地区，女性死亡率比男性低 3 至 5 倍，但趋势相似。结论：乙型肝炎 (HBV) 和丙型肝炎病毒 (HCV) 感染的控制有助于东亚和南欧 HCC 相关死亡率的下降。其他地区的不利趋势可归因于 20 世纪 60 年代和 1980 年代的 HCV（和 HBV）流行、饮酒、超重/肥胖增加以及糖尿病。更好地管理肝硬化、肝癌的诊断和治疗也影响着全球的死亡率趋势。简单总结：近几十年来，许多国家的肝癌死亡率有所上升。在这项研究中，我们更新了 1990 年至 2014 年全球 HCC 死亡率趋势，并预测了一些国家到 2020 年的趋势。我们观察到北欧和中欧、北美和拉丁美洲的不利趋势。东亚有所改善，但该地区的死亡率比大多数欧洲国家和美洲高 2 至 5 倍。预计东亚地区到 2020 年将稳步下降，但欧洲和美洲不会。 (C) 2017 年欧洲肝脏研究协会。爱思唯尔出版
Background & Aims: Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality rates have increased over recent decades in most countries. It is also the third cause of cancer death worldwide. The aim of this study is to update global trends in HCC mortality to 2014, and predict trends in rates in the EU, USA and Japan to 2020.Methods: Death certification data for HCC over the 1990-2014 period from the World Health Organization database were analyzed. Sixteen European, five American countries, and six other countries worldwide were included, as well as the EU as a whole.Results: In European men, mortality rates were stable during the last decade (3.5/100,000). HCC mortality increased in Northern and Central Europe, and decreased in Southern Europe. In the USA, HCC mortality increased by 35% between 2002 and 2012, reaching 3.1/100,000 men in 2012; it is predicted to remain stable to 2020. Reduced mortality rates were observed in East Asia, although they remained around 10-24/100,000 men. In Japan, HCC mortality is predicted to decrease (5.4/100,000 men in 2020). Trends were favorable in the young, but unfavorable in middle aged, except in East Asia. Mortality rates were 3- to 5-fold lower in women than men in most regions, but trends were similar.Conclusions: Control of hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections has contributed to the decrease in HCC-related mortality in East Asia and Southern Europe. Unfavorable trends in other regions can be attributed to HCV (and HBV) epidemics in the 1960s and 1980s, alcohol consumption, increased overweight/obesity, and diabetes. Better management of cirrhosis, HCC diagnosis and treatment are also influencing the mortality trends worldwide.Lay summary: Mortality rates due to HCC have increased in many countries over recent decades. In this study, we updated worldwide mortality trends for HCC from 1990 to 2014, and predicted trends for some countries to 2020. We observed unfavorable trends in Northern and Central Europe, North and Latin America. East Asia showed an improvement, however mortality rates in this region were 2- to 5-fold higher than in most European countries and the Americas. Steady declines to 2020 are predicted for East Asia but not for Europe and the Americas. (C) 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier