The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife
The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife
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DOI：
10.1038/s41564-019-0435-4
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发表时间：
2019-08-01
影响因子：
28.3
通讯作者：
Blackburn, Jason K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carlson, Colin J.;Kracalik, Ian T.;Blackburn, Jason K.
炭疽杆菌是一种能形成孢子的革兰氏阳性细菌，可引起炭疽病，这是一种严重影响放牧牲畜和野生有蹄类动物的急性感染，但也对人类健康构成威胁。B的地理范围。尽管对炭疽流行病和流行病动态进行了数十年的研究，但人们对炭疽的了解仍然很少;许多国家的监测系统有限或不足，即使在已知的流行地区也是如此。在这里，我们编制了一个全球人类，牲畜和野生动物炭疽疫情发生数据集。有了这些记录，我们使用提升回归树来生成B的全球分布图。炭疽病作为炭疽病风险的代表。我们估计有18.3亿人（95%可信区间（CI）：0.59- 41.6亿）生活在炭疽风险地区，但其中大多数人几乎没有职业暴露。更重要的是，全球共有6380万贫困牲畜饲养者（95%CI：1750 - 1.686亿）和11亿牲畜（95%CI：4 - 23亿）生活在脆弱地区。人类和牲畜的脆弱性都集中在欧亚大陆、非洲和北美干旱和温带地区的农村雨养系统中。最后，我们绘制了炭疽风险可能会破坏野生有蹄类动物的敏感保护工作，与炭疽易感景观相吻合。
Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions. Here, we compile a global occurrence dataset of human, livestock and wildlife anthrax outbreaks. With these records, we use boosted regression trees to produce a map of the global distribution of B. anthracis as a proxy for anthrax risk. We estimate that 1.83 billion people (95% credible interval (CI): 0.59-4.16 billion) live within regions of anthrax risk, but most of that population faces little occupational exposure. More informatively, a global total of 63.8 million poor livestock keepers (95% CI: 17.5-168.6 million) and 1.1 billion livestock (95% CI: 0.4-2.3 billion) live within vulnerable regions. Human and livestock vulnerability are both concentrated in rural rainfed systems throughout arid and temperate land across Eurasia, Africa and North America. We conclude by mapping where anthrax risk could disrupt sensitive conservation efforts for wild ungulates that coincide with anthrax-prone landscapes.