Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in seismic risk assessment
Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in seismic risk assessment
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DOI：
10.1016/j.strusafe.2008.06.001
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发表时间：
2009-01-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Kinali, Kursat
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ellingwood, Bruce R.;Kinali, Kursat
现代地震风险评估致力于通过洞察建筑物、桥梁、交通和公用事业系统等民用基础设施在遭受严重地震时的表现，努力支持减少风险。结构系统的完全耦合的地震风险或安全评估，及其伴随的不确定性分析，提供了对超过预定性能水平的年度概率的估计，所述预定性能水平是根据结构响应或更定性地定义的破坏状态来定义的。所有不确定性来源，包括固有的和基于知识的，都应纳入风险评估；然而，这些不确定性的表现方式取决于利益攸关方和决策者的喜好。本文阐述了这种不确定性是如何通过对美国中东部中低地震活动区典型的钢框架建筑结构进行地震风险评估来传播的，并探讨了这种不确定性对民用基础设施风险知情评估的影响。(C)2008爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Modern seismic risk assessment strives to Support risk mitigation by providing insight into the performance of civil infrastructure, including buildings, bridges and transportation and utility systems, subjected to severe earthquakes. A fully-coupled seismic risk or safety assessment of a structural system, and its accompanying analysis of uncertainty, provides estimates of the annual probability of exceeding pre-defined performance levels, defined either in terms of structural responses or more qualitatively defined damage states. All sources of uncertainty, both inherent and knowledge-based, should be included in risk assessment; however, the manner in which they are displayed depends on the preferences of the stakeholders and decision-makers. This paper illustrates how such uncertainties are propagated through a seismic risk assessment of steel frame building structures that are typical of regions of low-to-moderate seismicity in the Central and Eastern United States and explores sonic of the implications for risk-informed evaluation of civil infrastructure. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.