Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism
Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism
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人口统计和实际利率：检查机制
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2713443
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Fernanda Nechio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carlos M. Carvalho;A. ferrero;Fernanda Nechio
人口结构变迁可以通过三个渠道影响均衡实际利率。寿命的延长--或预期寿命的延长--给实际利率带来了下行压力，因为经纪人在预期更长的退休期限后积累了储蓄。人口增长率的下降有两个抵消作用。一方面，人均资本增加，从而通过减少资本的边际产出而导致实际利率下降。另一方面，人口增长的下降最终导致更高的抚养比(退休人员与工人的比例)。由于退休人员的储蓄比工人少，这种组合效应降低了总储蓄率，并推高了实际储蓄率。我们校准了一个易于处理的生命周期模型，以捕捉发达经济体人口结构转型的显著特征，并发现其总体影响是1990年至2014年期间均衡利率至少降低了1.5个百分点。人口趋势对货币政策的实施具有重要影响，特别是在名义利率下限为零的情况下。其他政策可以抵消人口转变对实际利率的负面影响，但取得了不同程度的成功。
The demographic transition can affect the equilibrium real interest rate through three channels. An increase in longevity---or expectations thereof---puts downward pressure on the real interest rate, as agents build up their savings in anticipation of a longer retirement period. A reduction in the population growth rate has two counteracting effects. On the one hand, capital per-worker rises, thus inducing lower real interest rates through a reduction in the marginal product of capital. On the other hand, the decline in population growth eventually leads to a higher dependency ratio (the fraction of retirees to workers). Because retirees save less than workers, this compositional effect lowers the aggregate savings rate and pushes real rates up. We calibrate a tractable life-cycle model to capture salient features of the demographic transition in developed economies, and find that its overall effect is a reduction of the equilibrium interest rate by at least one and a half percentage points between 1990 and 2014. Demographic trends have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in light of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Other policies can offset the negative effects of the demographic transition on real rates with different degrees of success.