A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels
A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels
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DOI：
10.1007/s00603-016-0949-5
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发表时间：
2016-08-01
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Duan, Shu-Qian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Guo-Feng;Feng, Xia-Ting;Duan, Shu-Qian
针对深埋隧道岩爆灾害造成的人员伤亡、施工设备设施损坏、工期延误、工程造价增加等问题，本研究试图提出一种D&B隧道岩爆动态风险评估与管理方法。确定了岩爆动态风险评估与管理的基本思路，并分别给出了岩爆风险评估与管理过程中各步骤的相关方法。其中，主要内容包括岩爆风险发生概率预警的微震方法、评估岩爆风险潜在后果的估计方法、采用兼顾发生概率和后果的新型量化指标确定岩爆风险等级的评价方法以及动态更新等。具体来说，本研究简要介绍了参考的岩爆预警微震方法，但重点分析了岩爆后果以及相关风险评估和管理。利用所提出的岩爆风险评估与管理方法，可以实时获取隧道开挖过程中岩爆发生的概率、潜在后果以及岩爆风险水平，有助于动态优化风险缓解措施及其应用。锦屏二级深水引水及排水隧道深度1900~2525m（D&B隧道全长11.6km）实例验证了该方法的适用性。
Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).