Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM
Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM
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使用中等复杂度地球系统模型 LOVECLIM 预测的千年总海平面承诺
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
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通讯作者：
T. Fichefet
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作者：
H. Goelzer;P. Huybrechts;S. Raper;M. Loutre;H. Goosse;T. Fichefet
海平面预计将在未来很长一段时间内上升，即使在人类引起的气候变暖稳定之后。在这里，我们使用中等复杂程度的地球系统模型LOVECLIM进行模拟，以预测在公元2000年或2100年稳定的大气温室气体浓度所迫使的第三个千年的海平面变化。该模型包括与大气和海洋模型耦合的格陵兰岛和南极冰盖的三维热力学模型，用于解释山地冰川和冰盖响应的全球冰川融化算法，以及通过海洋热吸收来评估海洋热膨胀的程序。考虑了四种气候变化情景来确定海平面承诺。根据SRES情景B1、A1B和A2，假设21世纪温室气体增加，而大气成分在2100年后趋于稳定。另一种情景假定从2000年起1000年的大气成分不变。对于我们首选的模型版本，我们发现，到公元3000年，海平面已经上升了1.1米。在2100年温室气体浓度稳定的试验中，海平面总上升幅度在2.1 m （B1）、4.1 m （A1B）和6.8 m （A2）之间。在所有情景中，这一量的一半以上来自格陵兰冰盖，热膨胀是第二大贡献者，冰川和冰帽的贡献很小，因为它受到最多相当于海平面25厘米的可用冰量的限制。此外，我们分析了9个不同模式版本的海平面贡献的敏感性，这些模式版本涵盖了由大气-海洋模式的模式参数变化实现的大范围气候敏感性。选定的温度指数可以很好地预测1000年后陆冰和海洋热膨胀的不同成分对海平面的贡献。
Sea-level is expected to rise for a long time to come, even after stabilization of human-induced climatic warming. Here we use simulations with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to project sea-level changes over the third millennium forced with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that stabilize by either 2000 or 2100 AD. The model includes 3D thermomechanical models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model, a global glacier melt algorithm to account for the response of mountain glaciers and ice caps, and a procedure for assessing oceanic thermal expansion from oceanic heat uptake. Four climate change scenarios are considered to determine sea-level commitments. These assume a 21st century increase in greenhouse gases according to SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2 with a stabilization of the atmospheric composition after the year 2100. One additional scenario assumes 1000 years of constant atmospheric composition from the year 2000 onwards. For our preferred model version, we find an already committed total sea-level rise of 1.1 m by 3000 AD. In experiments with greenhouse gas concentration stabilization at 2100 AD, the total sea-level rise ranges between 2.1 m (B1), 4.1 m (A1B) and 6.8 m (A2). In all scenarios, more than half of this amount arises from the Greenland ice sheet, thermal expansion is the second largest contributor, and the contribution of glaciers and ice caps is small as it is limited by the available ice volume of maximally 25 cm of sea-level equivalent. Additionally, we analysed the sensitivity of the sea-level contributions from an ensemble of nine different model versions that cover a large range of climate sensitivity realized by model parameter variations of the atmosphere–ocean model. Selected temperature indices are found to be good predictors for sea-level contributions from the different components of land ice and oceanic thermal expansion after 1000 years.