Population Dynamics and Projection Methods
Population Dynamics and Projection Methods
复制标题
人口动态和预测方法
DOI：
10.1007/978-90-481-8930-4_5
复制
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Norman P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Norman P
本章的目的是增加我们对不同人口组成部分之间关系的理解，因为随着时间的推移，轨迹联合收割机会影响人口规模的变化。澄清婴儿死亡率的变化在地理上是否与生育率的变化有关，将为预测模型的生命早期死亡率和生育率假设以及活产婴儿在生命第一年的存活率提供信息。本章回顾了以前的一项研究的结果，在婴儿死亡率趋势（儿童死亡率）的次国家的变化与生育率的趋势在英格兰和威尔士在十九世纪末和二十世纪初。然后，最近的趋势进行了调查，1981-2006年的研究范围扩大到整个英国。回归模型是用来确定社会人口对婴儿死亡率和生育率的影响。最后，制定了一个分类，以突出各组地区在婴儿死亡率和生育率方面是否有类似的趋势。
This chapter aims to add to our understanding of the relationship between different demographic components since trajectories over time combine to affect changes in population size. Clarifying whether changes in infant mortality rates relate geographically with changes in fertility rates will inform both the early life mortality and fertility rate assumptions of projection models and the survival of live births through the first year of life. The chapter reviews the findings of a previous study on timing and patterns of sub-national variations in infant mortality trends (as child mortality) in relation to fertility trends in England and Wales during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Then, more recent trends are investigated for 1981–2006 with the study area extended to cover the whole of the United Kingdom. Regression models are developed to determine socio-demographic influences on infant mortality and fertility rates. Finally, a classification is developed to highlight whether groups of areas have similar trends in infant mortality and fertility rates.