Comparing Strategies for Estimating Constituency Opinion from National Survey Samples
Comparing Strategies for Estimating Constituency Opinion from National Survey Samples
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DOI：
10.1017/psrm.2015.79
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发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Vivyan, Nick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hanretty, Chris;Lauderdale, Benjamin E.;Vivyan, Nick
对估计不同选区的民意如何变化感兴趣的政治学家开发了几种策略，用额外的信息来源补充有限的选区调查数据。我们提出了两项评估研究：一项是对2010年大选中政党选票份额的外部验证研究，另一项是对对欧盟的意见的交叉验证。我们发现，与直接估计相比，大部分收益来自于纳入选区水平的预测因素，这也是最容易纳入的额外信息来源。个人层面的预测因子与后期分层相结合，特别是改善了对不具代表性样本的估计，而地理局部平滑可以弥补选区层面的预测因子薄弱的影响。我们认为，这些发现很可能代表了这些方法在选区数量较多的情况下的应用。
Political scientists interested in estimating how public opinion varies by constituency have developed several strategies for supplementing limited constituency survey data with additional sources of information. We present two evaluation studies in the previously unexamined context of British constituency-level opinion: an external validation study of party vote share in the 2010 general election and a cross-validation of opinion toward the European Union. We find that most of the gains over direct estimation come from the inclusion of constituency-level predictors, which are also the easiest source of additional information to incorporate. Individual-level predictors combined with post-stratification particularly improve estimates from unrepresentative samples, and geographic local smoothing can compensate for weak constituency-level predictors. We argue that these findings are likely to be representative of applications of these methods where the number of constituencies is large.