Probability and category redefinition in the fault tree paradigm.
Probability and category redefinition in the fault tree paradigm.
复制标题
故障树范式中的概率和类别重新定义。
DOI：
10.1037//0096-1523.14.1.122
复制
发表时间：
1988
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
CastellanJr,NJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hirt,ER;CastellanJr,NJ
故障树一直被认为是问题解决者的辅助工具。然而，研究表明，它们的有用性存在局限性。Fischhoff，Slovic和Lichstein(1978)发现，给予不完整(修剪)树的受试者对遗漏不敏感；这些作者假设Tversky和Kahneman(1974)的可用性启发式是中介因素。采用受试者内部设计，实验1中的受试者得到了完整的和修剪过的树，并估计了汽车无法启动的概率和各种原因。为了增加省略的可用性，一些实验1的受试者首先产生了启动失败的可能原因。Fischhoff等人的基本理论。结果是重复的，但结果的几个方面反对将可用性假说作为判断机制。相反，受试者在根据修剪后的树做出判断时，似乎特别地重新定义了类别成员资格。通过使用实验2中的分类任务，我们证实了实验1的结果：当面对故障树中的遗漏时，被试确实重新定义了类别的实际内容。讨论了这些结果对将故障树用作问题解决辅助工具的影响。(保留所有权利，《心理信息数据库记录(C)2016 APA》)
Fault trees have been advocated as aids for problem solvers. However, research has suggested limitations in their usefulness. Fischhoff, Slovic, and Lichtenstein (1978) found that subjects given incomplete (pruned) trees were insensitive to omissions; these authors hypothesized that Tversky and Kahneman's (1974) availability heuristic was the mediating factor. Using a within-subjects design, subjects in Experiment 1 received both full and pruned trees and estimated probabilities and various reasons why a car would fail to start. To increase the availability of omissions, some Experiment 1 subjects first generated possible causes of starting failure. The basic Fischhoff et al. findings were replicated, but several aspects of the results argued against the availability hypothesis as the mechanism for judgment. Instead, subjects appeared to idiosyncratically redefine category membership when making judgments based upon pruned trees. By employing a sorting task in Experiment 2 we corroborated the results of Experiment 1: Subjects do redefine the actual contents of the categories when faced with an omission from the fault tree. The implications of these results for the use of fault trees as a problem solving aid are discussed.(PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved)