The Impact of a Barrier Island Loss on Extreme Events in the Tampa Bay
The Impact of a Barrier Island Loss on Extreme Events in the Tampa Bay
复制标题
障壁岛消失对坦帕湾极端事件的影响
DOI：
10.3389/fmars.2016.00056
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
J. Jensen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Ulm;A. Arns;T. Wahl;S. Meyers;M. Luther;J. Jensen
障壁岛占全球海岸线的八分之一。它们缓冲了大陆沿海地区的风暴潮和来自公海的波浪能量。由于侵蚀，它们的形状发生变化或消失，可能导致海平面极端事件对大陆的影响增加。一个受到侵蚀威胁的屏障岛屿是埃格蒙特礁，它位于佛罗里达中西部海岸的坦帕湾河口。在这项敏感性研究中，我们调查的影响埃格蒙特关键的损失将对风暴潮水位和风浪沿着海岸线的坦帕湾。我们首先模拟静水水位控制运行在1948年至2010年使用当今的测深，然后在一个场景运行覆盖同一时期相同的边界条件，但与埃格蒙特键从测深删除。返回水位进行评估的控制和运行的情况下，使用超过阈值的方法沿着整个坦帕湾海岸线的峰值。埃格蒙特键被发现有一个显着的影响，在海湾，特别是在北方，最远的内陆部分，与100年一遇的水位增加5厘米和15厘米之间的返回水位。此外，考虑到1980-2013年所有第99.5百分位数阈值的风浪模拟使用相同的控制和情景水深测量进行。由于埃格蒙特关键的损失，显着波高的回报水平的变化进行评估，发现周围的岛屿今天的位置显着波高的增加。
Barrier islands characterize up to an eighth of the global coastlines. They buffer the mainland coastal areas from storm surge and wave energy from the open ocean. Changes in their shape or disappearance due to erosion may lead to an increased impact of sea level extremes on the mainland. A barrier island threatened by erosion is Egmont Key which is located in the mouth of the Tampa Bay estuary at the west-central coast of Florida. In this sensitivity study we investigate the impact a loss of Egmont Key would have on storm surge water levels and wind waves along the coastline of Tampa Bay. We first simulate still water levels in a control run over the years 1948-2010 using present-day bathymetry and then in a scenario run covering the same period with identical boundary conditions but with Egmont Key removed from the bathymetry. Return water levels are assessed for the control and the scenario runs using the Peak-over-threshold method along the entire Tampa Bay coastline. Egmont Key is found to have a significant influence on the return water levels in the Bay, especially in the northern, furthest inland parts where water levels associated with the 100-year return period increase between 5 cm and 15 cm. Additionally, wind wave simulations considering all 99.5th percentile threshold exceedances in the years 1980-2013 were conducted with the same control and scenario bathymetries. Assessing changes in return levels of significant wave heights due to the loss of Egmont Key revealed an increase of significant wave heights around today's location of the island.