Simulating Arctic 2-m air temperature and its linear trends using the HIRHAM5 regional climate model

Simulating Arctic 2-m air temperature and its linear trends using the HIRHAM5 regional climate model
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使用 HIRHAM5 区域气候模型模拟北极 2 米气温及其线性趋势

DOI:
10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.10.022
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发表时间:
2019-03
影响因子:
5.5
通讯作者:
Dethloff K
Dethloff K
中科院分区:
地球科学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Zhou X;Matthes H;Rinke A;Huang B;Yang K;Dethloff K

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北极2米(T2)的气温代表了当地的气候。它的量化是评价数值模式在反映与地表能量平衡相关的复杂物理和动力学过程方面的主要标准之一。本研究利用HIRHAM5区域气候模式模拟了1979-2014年间的北极气候。北极站观测的评估表明,HIRHAM5总体上可以再现T2的时空变化,但在所有季节都存在大约−2 °C的系统性冷偏差。春季和秋季地表反照率被高估,夏季与云层相关的向下太阳辐射被低估,是造成各自季节寒冷偏向的主要原因。模式也很好地模拟了北极变暖(年平均T2的线性趋势为0.40 °C十年−1),尽管幅度小于ERA中期(0.55 °C十年−1)和观测站观测(0.60 °C十年−1)。此外,在使用11年移动窗口计算的T2趋势中,特别是在冬季和春季,明显的年代际变化明显,这主要与北极/北大西洋振荡的变化有关。
Air temperature at 2-m (T2) in the Arctic represents its local climate. Its quantification is one of the major criteria to evaluate the performance of numerical models in reflecting the complex physical and dynamical processes associated with the surface energy balance. This study uses HIRHAM5 regional climate model to simulate the Arctic climate during 1979–2014. Evaluations with Arctic station observations reveal that HIRHAM5 can generally reproduce the temporal and spatial variation of the T2, although a systematic cold bias of ca. −2 °C exists in all seasons. The overestimated surface albedo in spring and autumn, and the underestimated downward solar radiation associated with the cloud cover in summer are the main causes of the cold biases in each respective season. The model also simulates the Arctic warming well (with linear trends of 0.40 °C decade−1for the annual mean T2), although the magnitude is less than that from ERA-Interim (0.55 °C decade−1) and station observations (0.60 °C decade−1). In addition, strong decadal variability is clear in the T2 trends calculated using an 11-year moving windows, especially in winter and spring, which is mainly associated with the variability of the Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillations.
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