The Relationship Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review
The Relationship Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review
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DOI：
10.1029/2019jc015152
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发表时间：
2019-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Little;A. Hu;C. Hughes;G. McCarthy;C. Piecuch;R. Ponte;M. Thomas
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作者：
C. Little;A. Hu;C. Hughes;G. McCarthy;C. Piecuch;R. Ponte;M. Thomas
摘要 过去十年，科学和社会对大西洋经向翻转环流 (AMOC) 与美国东海岸海平面之间关系的兴趣日益浓厚，这主要是由于 (1) 预计且可能持续的与 AMOC 减弱相关的海平面上升加剧；(2) 通过美国东海岸海平面观测为重建北大西洋环流和气候提供信息的潜力。这些含义激发了大量基于模型和观察的分析。在这里，我们回顾了这项研究，发现数值模型一致支持 AMOC 强度和动态海平面之间的反相关系。然而，模拟结果显示，与 AMOC 相关的动态海平面变化幅度存在显着的沿海和模型间差异。专注于较短（通常小于十年）时间尺度的观测分析表明，北大西洋大尺度环流的某些组成部分与沿海海平面变化之间存在牢固的关系，但不同观测指标、AMOC和海平面之间的因果关系往往不清楚。我们强调现有和未来研究的重要性，这些研究旨在了解 AMOC 及其成分流之间的关系、海岸附近地转过程的作用以及本地和远程强迫的相互作用。此类研究将有助于协调不同数值模拟的结果相互之间以及与观测的结果，告知协变性的物理起源，并揭示尺度关系对强迫、时间尺度和模型表示的敏感性。反过来，这些信息将提供相关关系中不确定性的更完整的表征，从而导致更稳健的重建和预测。
Abstract Scientific and societal interest in the relationship between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and U.S. East Coast sea level has intensified over the past decade, largely due to (1) projected, and potentially ongoing, enhancement of sea level rise associated with AMOC weakening and (2) the potential for observations of U.S. East Coast sea level to inform reconstructions of North Atlantic circulation and climate. These implications have inspired a wealth of model‐ and observation‐based analyses. Here, we review this research, finding consistent support in numerical models for an antiphase relationship between AMOC strength and dynamic sea level. However, simulations exhibit substantial along‐coast and intermodel differences in the amplitude of AMOC‐associated dynamic sea level variability. Observational analyses focusing on shorter (generally less than decadal) timescales show robust relationships between some components of the North Atlantic large‐scale circulation and coastal sea level variability, but the causal relationships between different observational metrics, AMOC, and sea level are often unclear. We highlight the importance of existing and future research seeking to understand relationships between AMOC and its component currents, the role of ageostrophic processes near the coast, and the interplay of local and remote forcing. Such research will help reconcile the results of different numerical simulations with each other and with observations, inform the physical origins of covariability, and reveal the sensitivity of scaling relationships to forcing, timescale, and model representation. This information will, in turn, provide a more complete characterization of uncertainty in relevant relationships, leading to more robust reconstructions and projections.