Integrating geologic fault data into tsunami hazard studies
Integrating geologic fault data into tsunami hazard studies
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-13-1025-2013
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Lorito, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Basili, R.;Tiberti, M. M.;Lorito, S.
我们介绍了一个断层源数据集的实现，该数据集旨在成为区域规模海啸危险研究的起点。我们的方法集中在几何学、运动学和活动率评估方面的参数故障表征，并包括与故障源的存在和行为相关的认知不确定性的六个理由级别的系统分类。我们在地中海中部建立了一个案例研究，该地区位于欧洲、非洲和爱琴海板块的交汇处，具有复杂和有争议的构造结构，过去曾发生过几次海啸。使用由地壳地震(M-W=7)和俯冲地震(M-W=7和M-W=8)引起的最大波高的海啸情景，我们说明了关键选择在处理断层源的发震和海啸潜力方面的一阶后果。尽管8级地震产生的海啸可以预测地影响到整个盆地，但7级地震产生的海啸对地壳或俯冲断层震源的影响在许多地方仍然很大。这类情景表明，断层相对于目标海岸线的相对位置/方向以及水深测量特征如何表明，避免预先选择断层源，而不考虑其对危险分析结果的可能影响。
We present the realization of a fault-source data set designed to become the starting point in regional-scale tsunami hazard studies. Our approach focuses on the parametric fault characterization in terms of geometry, kinematics, and assessment of activity rates, and includes a systematic classification in six justification levels of epistemic uncertainty related with the existence and behaviour of fault sources. We set up a case study in the central Mediterranean Sea, an area at the intersection of the European, African, and Aegean plates, characterized by a complex and debated tectonic structure and where several tsunamis occurred in the past. Using tsunami scenarios of maximum wave height due to crustal earthquakes (M-w = 7) and subduction earthquakes (M-w = 7 and M-w = 8), we illustrate first-order consequences of critical choices in addressing the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potentials of fault sources. Although tsunamis generated by M-w = 8 earthquakes predictably affect the entire basin, the impact of tsunamis generated by M-w = 7 earthquakes on either crustal or subduction fault sources can still be strong at many locales. Such scenarios show how the relative location/orientation of faults with respect to target coastlines coupled with bathymetric features suggest avoiding the preselection of fault sources without addressing their possible impact onto hazard analysis results.