Tornado Warnings at Night: Who Gets the Message?
Tornado Warnings at Night: Who Gets the Message?
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夜间龙卷风警报：谁收到消息？
DOI：
10.1175/wcas-d-17-0114.1
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Schexnayder
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Mason;Kelsey N. Ellis;Betsy Winchester;S. Schexnayder
夜间龙卷风对公共健康构成威胁，其死亡人数是白天龙卷风的两倍多。虽然龙卷风警报的接收是个人行为反应模型中的一个重要因素，但迄今为止，文献中尚未研究夜间接收警报的情况。本研究使用田纳西州居民 (N = 1804) 的随机样本的调查数据，这些居民被随机分配到几乎相同的调查工具的白天或夜间版本。双变量和逻辑回归分析比较了龙卷风事件白天和夜间场景的警告接收机会、警告来源和警告接收预测因素。超过 80% 的被问及白天龙卷风的参与者表示，收到警告的机会很高/非常高，相比之下，只有不到 50% 的参与者被问及夜间龙卷风的情况。虽然人口统计和认知因素有助于预测白天收到龙卷风警报，但认知和地理因素在夜间更为重要。感知到的县风险和以前遭受龙卷风的经历与夜间接收的机会呈正相关，而相信运气是在龙卷风中幸存的重要因素以及生活在田纳西州东部（与西部相比）呈负相关。未来的研究应考虑与国家气象局、应急管理人员和当地媒体合作，以增加人们在夜间收到龙卷风警报的可能性，并更好地了解认知因素和特定信念在个人确保收到警报的努力中所发挥的作用。
Nocturnal tornadoes are a public health threat, over twice as likely to have fatalities as tornadoes during the day. While tornado warning receipt is an important factor in models of individual behavioral response, receipt of warnings at night has not been studied in the literature to date. This study uses survey data from a random sample of Tennessee residents (N = 1804) who were randomly assigned to day or night versions of a near-identical survey instrument. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses compare chance of warning receipt, warning sources, and predictors of warning receipt for day versus night scenarios of a tornadic event. Over 80% of participants asked about a daytime tornado said there was a high/very high chance of receiving the warning, compared to fewer than 50% of participants asked about a nighttime event. Whereas demographic and cognitive factors helped predict tornado warning receipt during the day, cognitive and geographic factors were salient for the night. Perceived county risk and prior experience with a tornado were positively associated with chance of nighttime receipt, while belief that luck is an important factor in surviving a tornado and living in east (compared to west) Tennessee were negatively associated. Future research should consider partnering with the National Weather Service, emergency managers, and local media to increase the likelihood that people will receive tornado warnings at night and to better understand the role that cognitive factors and particular beliefs play in individual efforts to ensure that warnings are received.