Seismicity models based on Coulomb stress calculations
Seismicity models based on Coulomb stress calculations
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DOI：
10.5078/corssa-32035809
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发表时间：
2010-09
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
S. Hainzl;S. Steacy;D. Marsan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Hainzl;S. Steacy;D. Marsan
我们对地震产生的基本物理理解是，应力积聚导致脆性地壳内的地震破裂，主要是先前存在的地壳断层。虽然绝对应力很难估计，但地震引起的应力变化可以计算出来，而且这些变化已被证明会影响随后事件的位置和时间。此外，从室内实验中得到的本构定律可以用来模拟断层的地震成核及其破裂传播。利用这些物理知识，已经建立了定量地震活动性模型。本文讨论了Dieterich（1994）提出的基于断层群摩擦响应的时空地震活动性模型。该模型已被证明可以解释各种观测结果，例如余震的大森-宇定律。我们重点关注以下问题：(i)必要的输入信息；（ii）模型实施；（iii）数据驱动的参数估计和（iv）考虑所涉及的认知和任意不确定性。
Our fundamental, physical, understanding of earthquake generation is that stress-build-up leads to earthquakes within the brittle crust rupturing mainly pre-existing crustal faults.While absolute stresses are difficult to estimate, the stress changes induced by earthquakes can be calculated, and these have been shown to effect the location and timing of subsequent events. Furthermore, constitutive laws derived from laboratory experiments can be used to model the earthquake nucleation on faults and their rupture propagation. Exploiting this physical knowledge quantitative seismicity models have been built. In this article, we discuss the spatiotemporal seismicity model based on the rate-and-state dependent frictional response of fault populations introduced by Dieterich (1994). This model has been shown to explain a variety of observations, e.g. the Omori-Utsu law for aftershocks. We focus on the following issues: (i) necessary input information; (ii) model implementation; (iii) data-driven parameter estimation and (iv) consideration of the involved epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.