Responses of Surface Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin, China
Responses of Surface Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin, China
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DOI：
10.1007/s00267-013-0018-8
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发表时间：
2013-02
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Changchun Xu;Yaning Chen;Yapeng Chen;R. Zhao;Hui Ding
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Changchun Xu;Yaning Chen;Yapeng Chen;R. Zhao;Hui Ding
基于1957 - 2009年塔里木河流域水文气候资料和土地利用/覆被变化资料，分析了干旱区塔里木河流域水文对气候变化和人类活动的响应。结果表明，塔里木河三大源头（阿克苏河、叶尔羌河和和田河）的地表径流量自20世纪60年代以来呈明显增加趋势，1994年进入更大径流量阶段。相反，塔里木河干流地表径流量自20世纪60年代以来呈现持续减少的趋势。近50年来，河源区地表径流量的增加趋势是气温和降水变化共同作用的结果。但是，地表径流在主流的减少趋势和观察到的时间和空间分布格局的变化主要是由于人类活动的不利影响。其中，灌溉用水量的日益增加和相关的水利工程的大规模建设是造成干流径流量减少趋势的原因。这种减少的趋势已经严重威胁到下游的生态安全。目前，TRB各部门之间的用水冲突和上下游之间的用水竞争已经达到了危险的程度，因此迫切需要实施流域综合管理计划。
Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.