Multivariable flexible modelling for estimating complete, smoothed life tables for sub-national populations.
Multivariable flexible modelling for estimating complete, smoothed life tables for sub-national populations.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12889-015-2534-3
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发表时间：
2015-12-16
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Allemani C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rachet B;Maringe C;Woods LM;Ellis L;Spika D;Allemani C
目前可用来估计各亚群按年龄和性别分类的死亡率的方法受到一些重要限制。我们提出了两种可供选择的多变量方法：关系模型和泊松模型，两者都使用了限制三次样条法。在一项模拟研究中，我们评估了弹性泊松和弹性关系模型与Elandt-Johnson方法的对比，该模型使用了100个人口和死亡计数的随机样本，具有不同的抽样比例和数据安排。使用适合度测量和预期寿命将估计率与原始死亡率进行比较。我们进一步研究了确定泊松模型中最优结点位置的方法。弹性泊松模型以最小的数据样本(1%)优于弹性关系模型和Elandt-Johnson方法。对于最大的数据样本(20%)，弹性泊松模型和弹性关系模型的表现相当，尽管弹性泊松模型显示出轻微的优势。这两种方法都倾向于低估婴儿死亡率，从而高估出生时的预期寿命。灵活的泊松模型在节点事先固定的年轻时期表现得更好。对于30岁及以上的人，结果与没有固定结的模型相似。推荐使用灵活的泊松模型，因为它可以在不对特定年龄的死亡率分布做出强有力的假设的情况下，对亚总体进行稳健和公正的估计。在最终模型中先验地打好结大大提高了年轻时的适合度。
The methods currently available to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for sub-populations are subject to a number of important limitations. We propose two alternative multivariable approaches: a relational model and a Poisson model both using restricted cubic splines. We evaluated a flexible Poisson and flexible relational model against the Elandt-Johnson approach in a simulation study using 100 random samples of population and death counts, with different sampling proportions and data arrangements. Estimated rates were compared to the original mortality rates using goodness-of-fit measures and life expectancy. We further investigated an approach for determining optimal knot locations in the Poisson model. The flexible Poisson model outperformed the flexible relational and Elandt-Johnson methods with the smallest sample of data (1%). With the largest sample of data (20%), the flexible Poisson and flexible relational models performed comparably, though the flexible Poisson model displayed a slight advantage. Both approaches tended to underestimate infant mortality and thereby overestimate life expectancy at birth. The flexible Poisson model performed much better at young ages when knots were fixed a priori. For ages 30 and above, results were similar to the model with no fixed knots. The flexible Poisson model is recommended because it derives robust and unbiased estimates for sub-populations without making strong assumptions about age-specific mortality profiles. Fixing knots a priori in the final model greatly improves fit at the young ages.