Economic modelling of energy services: Rectifying misspecified energy demand functions
Economic modelling of energy services: Rectifying misspecified energy demand functions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2015.05.006
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发表时间：
2015-07
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
L. Hunt;David L. Ryan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Hunt;David L. Ryan
虽然众所周知，能源需求是派生出来的，因为能源的需求不是为了能源本身，而是为了它所产生的能源服务--如供暖、照明和动力--能源需求模型，无论是理论上还是经验上的，往往都没有考虑到这一特征。在本文中，我们强调了由于忽视这一方面而导致的错误说明，以及它的经验含义--对价格弹性和其他指标的有偏估计--并提供了一种相对简单和经验上可行的方法来纠正它，这具有很强的理论基础。为此，我们开发了一个明确的消费者行为模型，在该模型中，效用来自于能源服务的消费，而不是来自用于生产能源服务的能源。正如我们所讨论的，这种方法打开了以理论上合理的方式检查能源需求的许多方面的可能性，这些方面以前没有在广泛的基础上被考虑，尽管一些现有的经验工作可以被解释为与这种类型的规范一致。虽然这个公式产生了能源服务的需求方程，而不是能源或特定能源的需求方程，但这些方程很容易转换成标准类型的能源需求方程(S)，这是通常估计的。与通常估计的那些项相比，所得到的能源需求方程包括的附加项突出了在估计典型的能源需求方程时隐含的错误说明。这一提法的一个明显缺陷是，需要关于通常未观察到的能源效率的信息，这是一种简单的解决办法，用来处理这一提法的一个明显缺陷，即如何在模型中反映能源效率，例如通过纳入外生趋势和/或包括其对过去能源价格的可能依赖。该方法是用一个经验例子来说明的，该例子涉及到利用1960-2011年期间的数据估计英国的总能源需求函数。
Although it is well known that energy demand is derived, since energy is required not for its own sake but for the energy services it produces – such as heating, lighting, and motive power – energy demand models, both theoretical and empirical, often fail to take account of this feature. In this paper, we highlight the misspecification that results from ignoring this aspect, and its empirical implications – biased estimates of price elasticities and other measures – and provide a relatively simple and empirically practicable way to rectify it, which has a strong theoretical grounding. To do so, we develop an explicit model of consumer behaviour in which utility derives from consumption of energy services rather than from the energy sources that are used to produce them. As we discuss, this approach opens up the possibility of examining many aspects of energy demand in a theoretically sound way that have not previously been considered on a widespread basis, although some existing empirical work could be interpreted as being consistent with this type of specification. While this formulation yields demand equations for energy services rather than for energy or particular energy sources, these are shown to be readily converted, without added complexity, into the standard type of energy demand equation(s) that is (are) typically estimated. The additional terms that the resulting energy demand equations include, compared to those that are typically estimated, highlight the misspecification that is implicit when typical energy demand equations are estimated. A simple solution for dealing with an apparent drawback of this formulation for empirical purposes, namely that information is required on typically unobserved energy efficiency, indicates how energy efficiency can be captured in the model, such as by including exogenous trends and/or including its possible dependence on past energy prices. The approach is illustrated using an empirical example that involves estimation of an aggregate energy demand function for the UK with data over the period 1960–2011.