A cautionary note on the use of Ornstein Uhlenbeck models in macroevolutionary studies.
A cautionary note on the use of Ornstein Uhlenbeck models in macroevolutionary studies.
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DOI：
10.1111/bij.12701
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发表时间：
2016-05
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影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Freckleton RP
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文献类型：
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作者：
Cooper N;Thomas GH;Venditti C;Meade A;Freckleton RP
系统发育比较方法越来越多地被用于深入了解性状进化的动力学。对于连续性状，这些方法的核心是一套模型，试图通过扩展布朗常数方差模型来捕获进化模式。然而，这些模型的属性往往知之甚少，这可能会导致结果的误解。在这里，我们专注于这些模型之一-奥恩斯坦乌伦贝克（Ornstein Uhlenbeck）模型。我们发现，在使用Likestival比率检验时，与简单的模型相比，Likestival模型经常被错误地青睐，并且许多拟合该模型的研究使用的数据集很小，容易出现这个问题。我们还表明，数据集中的极少量错误可能会对OU模型得出的推论产生深远影响。我们的研究结果表明，模拟拟合模型，并与经验结果进行比较是至关重要的，当拟合的布朗模型和其他扩展。最后，我们提出建议，在系统发育比较分析中拟合的ESTO模型的最佳实践，并解释ESTO模型的参数。
Phylogenetic comparative methods are increasingly used to give new insights into the dynamics of trait evolution in deep time. For continuous traits the core of these methods is a suite of models that attempt to capture evolutionary patterns by extending the Brownian constant variance model. However, the properties of these models are often poorly understood, which can lead to the misinterpretation of results. Here we focus on one of these models – the Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) model. We show that the OU model is frequently incorrectly favoured over simpler models when using Likelihood ratio tests, and that many studies fitting this model use datasets that are small and prone to this problem. We also show that very small amounts of error in datasets can have profound effects on the inferences derived from OU models. Our results suggest that simulating fitted models and comparing with empirical results is critical when fitting OU and other extensions of the Brownian model. We conclude by making recommendations for best practice in fitting OU models in phylogenetic comparative analyses, and for interpreting the parameters of the OU model.