Prognostic factors of Bell's palsy: prospective patient collected observational study
Prognostic factors of Bell's palsy: prospective patient collected observational study
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DOI：
10.1007/s00405-013-2676-9
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Yanagihara, Naoaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fujiwara, Takashi;Hato, Naohito;Yanagihara, Naoaki
本研究的目的是评估可能影响贝尔麻痹预后不良的各种参数，并评估贝尔麻痹的预测价值。进行了一项单中心前瞻性患者收集观察和验证研究。为了评估患者特征与不良预后之间的相关性，我们对年龄、性别、瘫痪侧、糖尿病、高血压和发病后1周的面部分级评分进行了单因素和多因素分析。为了评估面部分级评分的准确性，我们制备了受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线，并计算了ROC曲线下面积（AUROC）。我们还计算了灵敏度、特异性、阳性/阴性似然比和阳性/阴性预测值。我们纳入了1977年至2011年期间在爱媛大学医院发病后1周内就诊的贝尔麻痹患者。我们排除了年龄小于15岁且在6个月内失访的患者。主要结局定义为发病后6个月未恢复。总共有679名贝尔麻痹的成年人被纳入其中。在多变量分析中，1周时的面部分级评分显示与未恢复相关，尽管年龄、性别、瘫痪侧、糖尿病和高血压无关。面部分级评分的AUROC为0.793。1周时的Y系统评分中度准确地预测了贝尔麻痹6个月时的不恢复。
The purpose of this study was to evaluate various parameters potentially influencing poor prognosis in Bell's palsy and to assess the predictive value for Bell's palsy. A single-center prospective patient collected observation and validation study was conducted. To evaluate the correlation between patient characteristics and poor prognosis, we performed univariate and multivariate analyzes of age, gender, side of palsy, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and facial grading score 1 week after onset. To evaluate the accuracy of the facial grading score, we prepared a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculated the area under the ROC curve (AUROC). We also calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative likelihood ratio, and positive/negative predictive value. We included Bell's palsy patients who attended Ehime University Hospital within 1 week after onset between 1977 and 2011. We excluded patients who were less than 15 years old and lost-to-follow-up within 6 months. The main outcome was defined as non-recovery at 6 months after onset. In total, 679 adults with Bell's palsy were included. The facial grading score at 1 week showed a correlation with non-recovery in the multivariate analysis, although age, gender, side of palsy, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension did not. The AUROC of the facial grading score was 0.793. The Y-system score at 1 week moderate accurately predicted non-recovery at 6 months in Bell's palsy.