Uncertainty on Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Flow in the Riverside Well Field
Uncertainty on Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Flow in the Riverside Well Field
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发表时间：
2008
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通讯作者：
Shu Longcang
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作者：
Shu Longcang
在详细分析数值模拟过程中不确定性因素的基础上，提出了改进的一次二阶矩法，并将其应用于滨江井田地下水允许开采量的可靠性分析，评价结果表明，考虑参数的随机性，在4.7×104 m3/d的开采量下，超采的风险为19.31%。
Based on detailed analysis of uncertain factors in the process of numerical simulation,an advanced first order second moment method(AFOSM) is proposed.The method is then applied to the reliability analysis of groundwater allowable withdrawal in the riverside well field.The evaluation result shows that the risk of over-pumping is 19.31% under abstraction of 4.7×104 m3/d,with consideration of the randomness of parameters.