Towards the integration of spread and economic impacts of biological invasions in a landscape of learning and imitating agents
Towards the integration of spread and economic impacts of biological invasions in a landscape of learning and imitating agents
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.02.009
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发表时间：
2012-04-01
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Mumford, John D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carrasco, L. Roman;Cook, David;Mumford, John D.
我们开发了一个基于代理的模型集成了空间随机模拟有害非本地物种（NIS）的传播模型，农民有学习和模仿能力。该模型适用于西方玉米根虫（WCR）在英国的入侵。由于WCR的高扩散能力，特别是在气候变化条件下，入侵从未被根除。最低的预期福利损失出现在对入侵采取自由放任政策的情况下。需要土地管理者参与的国家创新制度控制方案的有效性在很大程度上取决于他们的学习和模仿动态。如果全世界都知道遵守的负担-例如通过媒体-而且土地管理者能够预见新行动的未来后果，那么控制方案就可能完全失败。这是由于在整个景观中发生的协调不合规行为。如果代理人需要经历遵守，了解其后果或只在当地进行沟通，潜在的不遵守行为的传播速度比入侵前慢，并在它后面的痕迹，最后，土地管理人员对国家创新系统的控制方案和他们的媒体报道的负面意见，可以大大破坏方案。查明和管理这些因素可增加方案成功的可能性。(C)2012 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
We develop an agent-based model integrated with a spatial stochastic simulation harmful non-indigenous species (NIS) spread model in which farmers have learning and imitation capabilities. The model is applied to the western corn rootworm (WCR) invasion in the UK. The invasion is never eradicated due to the high dispersal capacity of WCR, particularly under climate change conditions. The lowest expected welfare losses arise with a laissez faire policy against the invasion. The effectiveness of NIS control programmes that require participation by land managers is shown to depend greatly on their learning and imitation dynamics. Control programmes might fail completely if there is global knowledge of the burdens of compliance - e.g. through the media - and the land managers can foresee the future consequences of new actions. This is due to coordinated noncompliance occurring across the landscape. If the agents need to experience compliance to learn its consequences or communicate only locally, potential noncompliant behaviour spreads more slowly than the invasion front and trails behind it. In conclusion, negative opinions of land managers over NIS control programmes and their media coverage can strongly undermine programmes. Identification and management of these factors may increase the odds of success of the programmes. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.