Natural gas infrastructure development in North America under integrated markets
Natural gas infrastructure development in North America under integrated markets
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111757
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发表时间：
2020-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Siddiqui, Sauleh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Avraam, Charalampos;Chu, Daniel;Siddiqui, Sauleh
马塞勒斯地层中低成本页岩气的开采，美国和墨西哥的放松管制举措以及天然气作为低碳经济的过渡燃料的出现推动了北美天然气产量的增长，预计中期将继续增长以支持不断增加的液化天然气出口。从长远来看，更多地引入可再生能源和更深入的电气化抑制了天然气的供需。管道运营和油田开采的长时间使得天然气减排的时间对天然气基础设施利益相关者至关重要。全面融入美国，加拿大和墨西哥的天然气市场表明，这三个国家的减排轨迹是紧密相连的。本文研究了北美天然气市场和基础设施的发展，在不同的假设下，资源的可用性，技术进步和全球原油价格。我们通过使用北美天然气模型来量化每个场景的影响。我们的分析显示，美国跨境-与美国相比，墨西哥贸易在所有三种冲击下都更具弹性-加拿大贸易。增加墨西哥的产量可以推动墨西哥国内市场的增长，而不是减少美国的产量。墨西哥贸易。
The exploitation of low-cost shale gas in the Marcellus Formation, the deregulation initiatives in the U.S. and Mexico, and the emergence of natural gas as a bridging fuel to a low-carbon economy has fueled the growth of North American natural gas production, which is projected to keep growing in the mid-term to support the increasing LNG exports. Greater introduction of renewables and deeper electrification suppress both supply and demand for natural gas in the long-term. The long lead times of pipeline operation and field exploitation render the timing of natural gas abatement critical to natural gas infrastructure stakeholders. Full integration of the U.S., Canadian, and Mexican natural gas markets implies that the abatement trajectories of the three countries are tightly linked. This paper studies the development of the integrated North American natural gas markets and infrastructure under different assumptions on resource availability, technological progress, and global crude oil prices. We quantify the impact of each scenario by using the North American Natural Gas Model. Our analysis shows that cross-border U.S.-Mexico trade is more resilient under all three shocks compared to U.S.-Canada trade. Increasing Mexican production could drive the growth of the domestic Mexican market instead of reducing U.S.-Mexico trade.