Long Term Spatiotemporal Variability in Rainfall Trends over the State of Jharkhand, India
Long Term Spatiotemporal Variability in Rainfall Trends over the State of Jharkhand, India
复制标题
印度贾坎德邦降雨趋势的长期时空变化
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Singh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shonam Sharma;P. Singh
目前的研究是为了研究气候变化对印度贾坎德邦降雨的影响。它涉及的历史时空变化的降雨量的年度，季节和月度尺度上的分析，在102年（1901-2002年）的一段时间内，在国家贾坎德的18个地区。采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Sen斜率法检测了102年（1901-2002年）的趋势和变化幅度。应用Mann Whitney Pettit方法和累积偏差检验来检测序列中的移位点。结果表明，1951年是年降雨量最有可能发生变化的年份.此外，还对转换点之前（1901-1951年）和之后（1952-2002年）的数据系列进行了沿着百分比变化的趋势分析。在102年的时间里，年降水量、季风降水量和冬季降水量都有明显的下降趋势。戈达（Godda）的降幅最大（19.77%），Purbi Singhbum站的降幅最小（1.95%）。换档点前的趋势分析，即，1901-1951年期间年降雨量呈上升趋势，在转折点（1952-2002年）之后呈下降趋势。整个贾坎德的趋势分析表明，年降雨量和季风降雨量呈显著下降趋势，分别下降14.11%和15.65%。季节性降雨量的下降趋势将对该地区的农业活动产生更明显的影响，因为它可能影响该地区kharif作物的生长阶段（5月至10月）。
The current study was conducted to examine the impact of climate change on rainfall in Jharkhand state of India. It deals with the analysis of the historical spatiotemporal variability of rainfall on the annual, seasonal and monthly scale in 18 districts of the state Jharkhand over a period of 102 years (1901–2002). Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope method were applied to detect trends and the magnitude of change over the time period of 102 years (1901–2002). Mann Whitney Pettit’s method and Cumulative deviations test were applied for detection of shift point in the series. The results obtained year 1951 to be the most probable shift point in annual rainfall. The trend analysis along with the percent change for the data series before (1901–1951) and after the shift point (1952–2002) was also done. A significant downward rainfall trend was found in annual, monsoon and winter rainfall over the period of 102 years. The maximum decrease was found for the Godda (19.77%) and minimum at Purbi Singhbum station (1.95%). Trend analysis before shift point, i.e., during 1901–1951 showed an upward trend in annual rainfall and after shift point (1952–2002) a downward trend. The trend analysis for entire Jharkhand demonstrated a significant downward trend in annual and monsoon rainfall with a decrease of 14.11% and 15.65% respectively. A downward trend in seasonal rainfall will have a more pronounced effect on agricultural activities in the area as it may affect the growth phase of the kharif crops (May–October) in the region.