Mapping the risk of avian influenza in wild birds in the US
Mapping the risk of avian influenza in wild birds in the US
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-10-187
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发表时间：
2010-06-23
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Smith, Thomas B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fuller, Trevon L.;Saatchi, Sassan S.;Smith, Thomas B.
背景资料：禽流感病毒（AIV）是一个重要的公共卫生问题，因为人的大流行性流感病毒含有感染鸟类的病毒的基因。H5和H7亚型AIV具有周期性的从低致病性向高致病性突变的形式。分析AIV的地理分布可以确定可能发生重配事件的地区，以及如果它进入美国的野生鸟类种群，高致病性流感可能会传播。对AIV病例数量进行建模很重要，因为多种AIV亚型的合并感染率随着病例数量的增加而增加，并且合并感染是引起新流感毒株的重配事件的来源，这发生在1968年大流行之前。自20世纪70年代以来，雁形目（Anseriformes）和形目（Charadriiformes）的水生鸟类被认为是AIV的宿主。然而，很少有人知道流感流行的陆栖鸟类的目的雀形目。由于雀形目鸟类与家禽有着相同的栖息地，它们可能是比水鸟更有效的人类疾病传播者。我们分析了152个雀形目物种，包括美国知更鸟（Turdus migratorius）和斯温森的画眉（Catharus ustulatus）。方法：我们制定了一个回归模型，以预测AIV病例在整个美国的县规模作为一个函数的12个环境变量，采样工作，并接近其他县流感疫情。我们的分析没有区分流感的类型，包括低或高致病性forms.Results：从225种鸟类在2005年和2008年之间在美国41个州收集的13,046泄殖腔样本的分析表明，流感的平均患病率在雀是大于其他8个鸟类订单的患病率。我们的回归模型将大平原和太平洋西北地区确定为AIV的高风险地区。高度显着的预测AIV包括收获的农田和一年中的第一天，当一个县是snowfree.Conclusions：虽然水禽流感的流行一直赞赏，我们表明，22种鸣禽和栖息鸟类（为了Passeriformes）是流感水库在美国本土。
Background: Avian influenza virus (AIV) is an important public health issue because pandemic influenza viruses in people have contained genes from viruses that infect birds. The H5 and H7 AIV subtypes have periodically mutated from low pathogenicity to high pathogenicity form. Analysis of the geographic distribution of AIV can identify areas where reassortment events might occur and how high pathogenicity influenza might travel if it enters wild bird populations in the US. Modelling the number of AIV cases is important because the rate of co-infection with multiple AIV subtypes increases with the number of cases and co-infection is the source of reassortment events that give rise to new strains of influenza, which occurred before the 1968 pandemic. Aquatic birds in the orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes have been recognized as reservoirs of AIV since the 1970s. However, little is known about influenza prevalence in terrestrial birds in the order Passeriformes. Since passerines share the same habitat as poultry, they may be more effective transmitters of the disease to humans than aquatic birds. We analyze 152 passerine species including the American Robin (Turdus migratorius) and Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus).Methods: We formulate a regression model to predict AIV cases throughout the US at the county scale as a function of 12 environmental variables, sampling effort, and proximity to other counties with influenza outbreaks. Our analysis did not distinguish between types of influenza, including low or highly pathogenic forms.Results: Analysis of 13,046 cloacal samples collected from 225 bird species in 41 US states between 2005 and 2008 indicates that the average prevalence of influenza in passerines is greater than the prevalence in eight other avian orders. Our regression model identifies the Great Plains and the Pacific Northwest as high-risk areas for AIV. Highly significant predictors of AIV include the amount of harvested cropland and the first day of the year when a county is snow free.Conclusions: Although the prevalence of influenza in waterfowl has long been appreciated, we show that 22 species of song birds and perching birds (order Passeriformes) are influenza reservoirs in the contiguous US.