Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian electricity consumption patterns
Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian electricity consumption patterns
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/er.5877
复制
发表时间：
2020-09-07
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
de Souza, Dyego Leandro Bezerra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carvalho, Monica;de Delgado, Danielle Bandeira;de Souza, Dyego Leandro Bezerra
COVID-19疫情导致实施流动限制及居家办公计划，影响了用电模式及水平。本研究分析了巴西能源系统及其子系统（东北部，北部，南部和东南部-中西部）的能源消费趋势的移动性的物理距离措施的效果。趋势由Joinpoint软件评估，分析涵盖2020年1月1日至5月27日期间。每日负荷数据按周分组，考虑95%置信区间和p < 0.05，计算每周百分比变化。比较了巴西实施隔离法令前后（2020年3月15日）的每周电力负荷。观察到电力消费水平在统计上显著下降，两个联合点代表了趋势。由于各地理区域的消费情况不同，因此产生的电力动态也不同。这是首项采用联合点分析计算能源消耗趋势的研究，重点关注COVID-29疫情。这里提供的数据是独一无二的，因为它侧重于巴西，这使得巴西决策者能够得出更准确的影响。
The implementation of mobility restrictions and home office schemes due to the COVID-19 pandemic have influenced electricity consumption patterns and levels. This study analyzes the effect of physical distancing measures regarding mobility on the energy consumption trends for the Brazilian energy system and its subsystems (Northeast, North, South, and Southeast-Midwest). Trends were evaluated by the Joinpoint software, and the analysis comprehended the period between January 1 and May 27, 2020. Daily load data was grouped into weeks, with the calculation of weekly percentage changes considering a 95% confidence interval andp < 0.05. The weekly electricity loads were compared in the periods before and after the isolation decrees were enforced in Brazil (March 15, 2020). Statistically significant decreases were observed in the levels of electricity consumption, with trends represented by two joinpoints. Due to the different profiles of consumption across the geographic regions, the resulting electricity dynamics were also different. This is the first study to employ joinpoint analysis for the calculation of energy consumption trends focusing on the COVID-29 pandemic. Data presented herein is unique, in its focus on Brazil, which enables more accurate implications to be drawn for Brazilian policy makers.