Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence
Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence
复制标题
失业动态和持续时间依赖性
DOI：
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发表时间：
1996
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
J. van Ours
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gerard J. van den Berg;J. van Ours
失业持续时间分析的一个主要问题是区分失业退出率的真正持续时间依赖性和未观察到的异质性。我们提出了一种方法，这两种现象的非参数估计，旨在适用于从不同的持续时间类的总流出的时间序列数据。该模型明确考虑到个人退出率受到商业周期和季节性效应的影响。该方法适用于美国的数据。我们发现黑人和白色人之间的分歧持续时间的影响。然而，除了白色男性，持续时间的依赖是由未观察到的异质性。
A major issue in the analysis of unemployment durations concerns distinguishing genuine duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment from unobserved heterogeneity. We present a method for the nonparametric estimation of both phenomena, designed to be applicable to time-series data on aggregate outflows from different duration classes. The model explicitly takes into account that individual exit rates are affected by the business cycle and by seasonal effects. The method is applied to U.S. data. We find diverging duration effects among black and white individuals. However, except for white males, duration dependence is dominated by unobserved heterogeneity.