Evaluating climate change effects on runoff by statistical downscaling and hydrological model GR2M
Evaluating climate change effects on runoff by statistical downscaling and hydrological model GR2M
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DOI：
10.1007/s00704-013-1005-y
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发表时间：
2014-07
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
U. Okkan;O. Fistikoglu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
U. Okkan;O. Fistikoglu
本研究的主要目的是评估气候变化对位于土耳其爱琴海地区的伊兹密尔-塔赫塔利淡水流域的影响。为此，一个发达的战略，包括统计降尺度和水文建模说明通过其应用到流域。在降水和温度的统计降尺度之前，解释变量来自国家环境预测中心/国家大气研究中心再分析数据集。所有可能的回归方法被用来建立降水，温度和气候变量之间的最简约的关系。选定的预测因子已被用于训练的人工神经网络为基础的降尺度模型和训练后的模型与获得的关系已被操作，以产生情景降水和温度从第三代耦合气候模式的模拟。缩小规模后，缩小规模的产出产生的偏差有所减少。最后，校正的降尺度输出已被转换为径流的每月参数水文模型GR 2 M的装置，以评估可能的影响，温度和降水量的变化对径流。根据A1 B气候情景的结果，预测研究流域的降水、温度和径流具有统计学意义的趋势。
The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Izmir-Tahtali freshwater basin, which is located in the Aegean Region of Turkey. For this purpose, a developed strategy involving statistical downscaling and hydrological modeling is illustrated through its application to the basin. Prior to statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature, the explanatory variables are obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data set. All possible regression approach is used to establish the most parsimonious relationship between precipitation, temperature, and climatic variables. Selected predictors have been used in training of artificial neural networks-based downscaling models and the trained models with the obtained relationships have been operated to produce scenario precipitation and temperature from the simulations of third Generation Coupled Climate Model. Biases from downscaled outputs have been reduced after downscaling process. Finally, the corrected downscaled outputs have been transformed to runoff by means of a monthly parametric hydrological model GR2M to assess the probable impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on runoff. According to the A1B climate scenario results, statistically significant trends are foreseen for precipitation, temperature, and runoff in the study basin.