Referendums on Membership and European Integration 1972–2015
Referendums on Membership and European Integration 1972–2015
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1972-2015 年成员资格和欧洲一体化参考文献
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发表时间：
2016
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通讯作者：
M. Qvortrup
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Qvortrup
关于全民公决有很多误解。最常见的原因是，选民天生就持怀疑态度，一旦有机会，他们往往会投反对票。本文分析了一些关于欧盟问题公投的普遍“真相”。基于对自1972年以来所有43次与欧盟有关的公投的统计分析，它表明，如果政府执政时间较长，则往往会在公投中失败，选票上的情绪性言论与高赞成票相关，高投票率与投票反对欧洲一体化相关，但竞选支出无关紧要。仅根据前43次公投的统计证据，反对欧盟成员资格的人将赢得英国脱欧公投。
There are many myths about referendums. The most common one is that voters are inherently sceptical and tend to vote no when given the opportunity. This article analyses some of the commonly held ‘truths’ about referendums on EU matters. Based on a statistical analysis of all forty-three EU-related referendums since 1972, it shows that governments tend to lose referendums if they have been in office for a long time, that emotive words on the ballot paper are correlated with a high yes vote and that a high turnout is correlated with a vote against European integration, but campaign spending is inconsequential. Based solely on statistical evidence from the previous forty-three referendums, the opponents of EU membership will win the Brexit referendum.