Spatial Interaction Modelling
Spatial Interaction Modelling
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DOI：
10.1007/0-306-48058-1_17
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Rietveld;P. Nijkamp
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Rietveld;P. Nijkamp
古希腊哲学家赫拉克利特的历史言论经常被引用：“一切都在运动，除了运动过程本身”。他很可能没有提到我们现代的、高度流动的社会，但无论如何，他认识到永动机的现象。我们的时代是流动的时代，即人员、货物和信息的密集地理流动。在过去的几个世纪里，旅行距离不断增长。经济历史学家查尔斯·范·多伦（Charles van Doren，1992）对现代人过去和未来的流动模式做出了一些简单但有趣的观察。据他估计，1800年平均每天可以方便行驶的距离为12英里。这个数字在 1900 年已经上升到每天 60 英里，在 2000 年上升到每天 300 英里。根据这些数字推断，预计到 2100 年，每天可以方便桥接的平均距离将达到 1500 英里，到 2200 年甚至达到 7500 英里。尽管有一些猜测，但应该认识到，每日流动性的增长率是一个令人惊讶的现象。 “流动人”已经成为地球上的优势物种。很明显，流动性的增长不是一个自主因素，而是依赖于几个背景因素，例如收入和福利的增加、闲暇时间的增加、人口发展等。令人惊讶的是，许多国家表现出或多或少相同的流动性模式（参见 Salomon 等人 1993 年对许多统计细节的介绍）。
The ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitos is often quoted for his historical remark that “everything is in motion, except the motion process itself”. Most likely he did not refer to our modern, highly mobile society, but in any case he recognized the phenomenon of perpetual motion. Our age is the age of mobility, in the sense of intensive geographical movement of people, goods, and also information. The past centuries have witnessed an uninterrupted growth in distance traveled. Economic historian Charles van Doren (1992) has made some simple, but intriguing observations on the past and future mobility pattern of modern man. According to his estimates, the average distance that could conveniently be traveled in the year 1800 was 12 miles a day. This figure had already risen to 60 miles a day in 1900, and 300 miles in 2000. Extrapolation of these figures would lead to the expectation that by the year 2100 the average daily distance that could conveniently be bridged would be 1500 miles and by the year 2200 even 7500 miles. Despite some speculation, it ought to be recognized that the growth rate of daily mobility is a surprising phenomenon. The ‘homo mobilis’ has become a dominant species on earth.It is evident that the growth in mobility is not an autonomous factor, but is dependent on several background factors, such as the rise in income and welfare, the rise in leisure time, demographic developments etc. It is indeed surprising that many countries exhibit more or less the same mobility pattern (see for a presentation of many statistical details Salomon et al. 1993).