Increase in ocean-onto-land droughts and their drivers under anthropogenic climate change
Increase in ocean-onto-land droughts and their drivers under anthropogenic climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/s41612-023-00523-y
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发表时间：
2023-11
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Yansong Guan;Xihui Gu;Louise J. Slater;Jiabo Yin;Jianfeng Li;S. Gebrechorkos;Xiang Zhang;
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yansong Guan;Xihui Gu;Louise J. Slater;Jiabo Yin;Jianfeng Li;S. Gebrechorkos;Xiang Zhang;
海洋-陆地干旱--即起源于海洋并迁移到陆地上的干旱--是最近发现的一种现象，具有严重的自然和人类影响。然而，人为排放对OTLD过去和未来变化的影响及其潜在机制仍不清楚。在这里，我们使用降水减去蒸发赤字来识别全球OTLD，我们发现OTLD在过去60年里由于人为气候变化而加剧。在未来的高排放情景下，OTLD将在全球变得更加频繁(+39.68%)、持续(+54.25%)、广泛(+448.92%)和严重(+612.78%)。增强的OTLD与北半球副热带反气旋和南半球复杂的环流模式导致的水汽输送减少有关。OTLDs过程中水汽输送的减少主要是由于大气对人类引起的全球变暖的热力学响应造成的。我们的结果强调了提高对这类干旱的认识和采取气候缓解措施的重要性。
Ocean-onto-land droughts (OTLDs)—i.e., droughts originating over the oceans and migrating onto land—are a recently identified phenomenon with severe natural and human impacts. However, the influence of anthropogenic emissions on past and future changes in OTLDs and their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here, using precipitation-minus-evaporation deficits to identify global OTLDs, we find OTLDs have intensified due to anthropogenic climate change during the past 60 years. Under a future high-emissions scenario, the OTLDs would become more frequent (+39.68%), persistent (+54.25%), widespread (+448.92%), and severe (+612.78%) globally. Intensified OTLDs are associated with reduced moisture transport driven by subtropical anticyclones in the northern hemisphere and complex circulation patterns in the southern hemisphere. The reduction in moisture transport during OTLDs is mainly caused by the atmospheric thermodynamic responses to human-induced global warming. Our results underscore the importance of improving understanding of this type of drought and adopting climate mitigation measures.