A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate
A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2005gl023684
复制
发表时间：
2005-09-17
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Yin, JH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yin, JH
在由 15 个耦合气候模型执行的 21 世纪气候模拟集合中发现了风暴路径一致的向极地和向上移动以及强化。风暴路径的移动伴随着中纬度斜压区域的向极地移动和向上扩展，这与热带对流层上层变暖的加剧和对流层顶高度的增加有关。南半球的斜压向极地移动有所增强，而北半球的斜压移动则因地表经向温度梯度的变化而部分抵消。风暴路径的向极移也往往伴随着表面风应力和降水的向极移，以及向环形模态的高指数状态的转变。这些结果凸显了风暴路径在气候系统中发挥的不可或缺的作用，以及了解它们未来如何以及为何发生变化的重要性。
A consistent poleward and upward shift and intensification of the storm tracks is found in an ensemble of 21st century climate simulations performed by 15 coupled climate models. The shift of the storm tracks is accompanied by a poleward shift and upward expansion of the midlatitude baroclinic regions associated with enhanced warming in the tropical upper troposphere and increased tropopause height. The poleward shift in baroclinicity is augmented in the Southern Hemisphere and partially offset in the Northern Hemisphere by changes in the surface meridional temperature gradient. The poleward shift of the storm tracks also tends to be accompanied by poleward shifts in surface wind stress and precipitation, and a shift towards the high index state of the annular modes. These results highlight the integral role that the storm tracks play in the climate system, and the importance of understanding how and why they will change in the future.