Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling
Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Cherry, Jessica E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cohen, Judah L.;Furtado, Jason C.;Cherry, Jessica E.
全球气候模型的最新共识预测北半球（NH）高纬度地区到中纬度地区在北半球冬季将变暖。然而，观测到的北半球冬季地表温度的最新趋势与这些预测存在差异。在过去的二十年里，北美东部和欧亚大陆北部的大片地区一直存在大规模的降温趋势。我们认为，这种不可预见的趋势可能不仅仅是由于内部变异造成的。相反，有证据表明，夏季和秋季变暖趋势与高纬度湿度增加和欧亚积雪增加同时发生，这动态地导致了大规模的冬季降温。了解这种对气候系统辐射变暖的反直觉反应有可能改善季节性和更长时间尺度的气候预测。
The most up to date consensus from global climate models predicts warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes to middle latitudes during boreal winter. However, recent trends in observed NH winter surface temperatures diverge from these projections. For the last two decades, large-scale cooling trends have existed instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia. We argue that this unforeseen trend is probably not due to internal variability alone. Instead, evidence suggests that summer and autumn warming trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in Eurasian snow cover, which dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling. Understanding this counterintuitive response to radiative warming of the climate system has the potential for improving climate predictions at seasonal and longer timescales.