Persistence and dynamics in lattice models of epidemic spread.
Persistence and dynamics in lattice models of epidemic spread.
复制标题
流行病传播格子模型的持久性和动态性。
DOI：
10.1006/jtbi.1996.0088
复制
发表时间：
1996
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
R. Anderson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C.J Rhodes;R. Anderson
我们提出了一个简单的流行病模型，代表了一种传染病在空间上扩展的主机人口的传播。模型福尔斯属于利用基于晶格的模拟作为结合空间效果的方式的一般技术类。与疾病的持久性和动力学的因素进行了调查。存在一个明确的人口阈值，低于该阈值，疾病就会消亡，高于该阈值，疾病就会稳定在地方性状态。人口混合的速度被证明会影响这个阈值密度。引入了准确解释模型平均场极限的方程，并讨论了与麻疹流行病学建模的相关性。
We present a simple epidemic model representing the spread of a communicable disease in a spatially extended host population. The model falls into the general class of techniques which utilise lattice based simulation as a way of incorporating spatial effects. The factors relating to the persistence and dynamics of the disease are investigated. There exists a clear population threshold below which the disease dies out and above which it settles to an endemically stable state. The rate of population mixing is shown to affect this threshold density. Equations which accurately account for the mean-field limit of the model are introduced and the relevance to the epidemiological modelling of measles is discussed.