Do family caps reduce out-of-wedlock births? Evidence from Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, New Jersey and Virginia
Do family caps reduce out-of-wedlock births? Evidence from Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, New Jersey and Virginia
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DOI：
10.1007/s11113-004-3462-6
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发表时间：
2004-10-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Fairlie, RW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dyer, WT;Fairlie, RW
在20世纪90年代，23个州实施了家庭上限政策，以减少领取福利的人中非婚生子女的发生率。使用1989至1999年间当前的人口调查数据，我们考察了家庭上限政策对单身、受教育程度较低的有孩子的妇女出生率的影响。我们使用卫生与公众服务部批准豁免的前五个州来实施家庭上限，作为“自然实验”。具体地说，我们将阿肯色州、佐治亚州、印第安纳州、新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州的未婚生育率趋势与在《个人责任和工作机会协调法案》之前没有实施家庭上限或任何其他豁免的州的趋势进行比较。我们使用了几种技术来增加我们的“自然实验”结果的可信度，例如包含多个比较组、对不同时间趋势的控制以及“差中差”估计器。我们的回归估计通常没有提供证据表明家庭上限政策降低了有孩子的单身、受教育程度较低的妇女的非婚生子女的发生率。
During the 1990s, 23 states implemented family cap policies as a means to reduce the incidence of out-of-wedlock births among welfare recipients. Using Current Population Survey data from 1989 to 1999, we examine the impact of family cap policies on the birth rates of single, less-educated women with children. We use the first five states that were granted waivers from the Department of Health and Human Services to implement family caps as "natural experiments." Specifically, we compare trends in out-of-wedlock birth rates in Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, New Jersey and Virginia to trends in states that did not implement family caps or any other waivers prior to the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act. We employ several techniques to increase the credibility of results from our "natural experiment," such as the inclusion of multiple comparison groups, controls for differential time trends, and "difference-in-difference-in-differences" estimators. Our regression estimates generally do not provide evidence that family cap policies reduce the incidence of out-of-wedlock births among single, less-educated women with children.