Contrasting approaches to projecting long-run global food security
Contrasting approaches to projecting long-run global food security
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DOI：
10.1093/oxrep/grv006
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发表时间：
2015-03-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Robinson, Sherman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Godfray, H. Charles J.;Robinson, Sherman
在整个历史上，粮食供应一直是政策制定者关注的中心问题。今天，我们目睹了一个由2008年开始的粮食价格上涨及其波动性加大引发的粮食安全悲观时期。然而，工业革命和绿色革命结束了之前的粮食悲观情绪，政策制定者理所当然地提出这样一个问题：人类的聪明才智和技术进步是否会在不需要他们干预的情况下解决当今的担忧。在这里，我们探讨了自然科学家和社会科学家试图探索未来粮食供求的一些方法，以帮助政策制定者了解未来的挑战。我们尤其感到震惊的是，不同的社区以不同的方式处理这一问题，很少相互参照。我们描述了两种广泛的方法：统计外推和纳入市场机制的食品系统经济模拟模型。我们比较了不同方法的优缺点，并就它们如何共同处理重要的政策优先事项提出了一些试探性的建议。
The provision of food has been a central preoccupation of policy-makers throughout history. Today we are witnessing a period of food security pessimism triggered by increases in food prices, and their higher volatility, that began in 2008. However, previous episodes of food pessimism were ended by the Industrial and Green Revolutions, and policy-makers legitimately ask whether human ingenuity and technical advances will address today's worries without the need for their intervention. Here we explore some of the ways natural and social scientists have attempted to explore the supply and demand for food in the future to help policy-makers understand the challenges ahead. We are particularly struck that different communities have approached this problem in different ways that seldom reference each other. We describe two broad approaches: statistical extrapolation and economic simulation models of the food system that incorporate market mechanisms. We compare the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches and make some tentative suggestions about how they can together address important policy priorities.