Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and its determinants of COVID-19 transmission in typical labor export provinces of China.
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and its determinants of COVID-19 transmission in typical labor export provinces of China.
复制标题
中国典型劳务输出省份COVID-19传播的时空异质性及其决定因素
DOI：
10.1186/s12879-021-05926-x
复制
发表时间：
2021-03-05
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Zhu Q
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang L;Xu C;Wang J;Qiao J;Yan M;Zhu Q
以前的研究表明，在人口大量和方便地进入爆发中心的地方，传染病传播的风险最大。然而，中国典型劳务输出地区COVID-19的时空变化和风险决定因素仍不清楚。了解这种疾病的地理分布和影响其传播的社会经济因素对疾病预防和控制至关重要。2020年1月21日至2月24日，河南和安徽的34个城市共报告了2152例COVID-19病例。使用贝叶斯时空层次模型来检测COVID-19造成的风险的时空变化，并使用GeoDetector q统计量来评估潜在影响因素的决定力。COVID-19带来的风险表现出地理时空异质性。从时间上看，有暴发期和防治期。在空间上，有高风险地区和低风险地区。高风险区主要集中在西南部毗邻湖北的地区和经济、交通枢纽城市，低风险区主要集中在远离震中的豫西、皖东地区。湖北省武汉市的可达性、当地经济条件和医疗基础设施都在COVID-19传播的时空异质性中发挥了重要作用。结果表明，人均GDP和第一产业GDP比重的q统计量分别为0.47和0.47。武汉市外来人口的q统计量为0.33。特别是，结果显示，人口密度与城市化、武汉人口流出、人均GDP和医生数量之间的交互效应q统计量均大于0.8。COVID-19在中国劳务输出地区表现出显著的时空异质性。高风险地区主要位于震中附近以及作为交通枢纽的大城市。进入震中的人口，以及当地的经济和医疗条件，在疾病传播的相互作用中发挥了重要作用。在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1186/s12879-021-05926-x获得。
Previous studies have indicated that the risk of infectious disease spread is greatest in locations where a population has massive and convenient access to the epicenter of an outbreak. However, the spatiotemporal variations and risk determinants of COVID-19 in typical labor export regions of China remain unclear. Understanding the geographical distribution of the disease and the socio-economic factors affecting its transmission is critical for disease prevention and control. A total of 2152 COVID-19 cases were reported from January 21 to February 24, 2020 across the 34 cities in Henan and Anhui. A Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchy model was used to detect the spatiotemporal variations of the risk posed by COVID-19, and the GeoDetector q statistic was used to evaluate the determinant power of the potential influence factors. The risk posed by COVID-19 showed geographical spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Temporally, there was an outbreak period and control period. Spatially, there were high-risk regions and low-risk regions. The high-risk regions were mainly in the southwest areas adjacent to Hubei and cities that served as economic and traffic hubs, while the low-risk regions were mainly in western Henan and eastern Anhui, far away from the epicenter. The accessibility, local economic conditions, and medical infrastructure of Wuhan in Hubei province all played an important role in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission. The results indicated that the q statistics of the per capita GDP and the proportion of primary industry GDP were 0.47 and 0.47, respectively. The q statistic of the population flow from Wuhan was 0.33. In particular, the results showed that the q statistics for the interaction effects between population density and urbanization, population flow from Wuhan, per capita GDP, and the number of doctors were all greater than 0.8. COVID-19 showed significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the labor export regions of China. The high-risk regions were mainly located in areas adjacent to the epicenter as well as in big cities that served as traffic hubs. Population access to the epicenter, as well as local economic and medical conditions, played an important role in the interactive effects of the disease transmission. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-05926-x.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Du J;Pang Y;Liu Y;Mi F;Xu S;Li L
通讯作者：
Li L