A comparison of results from MRIO and interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the impacts of a positive demand shock on the 'CO2 trade balance' between Scotland and the rest of the UK
A comparison of results from MRIO and interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the impacts of a positive demand shock on the 'CO2 trade balance' between Scotland and the rest of the UK
复制标题
MRIO 和区域间可计算一般均衡 (CGE) 分析结果的比较，分析积极需求冲击对苏格兰与英国其他地区之间“二氧化碳贸易平衡”的影响
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Turner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Michelle Gilmartin;J. Swales;K. Turner
在以前的工作中，我们应用了特纳等人(2007年)提出的环境多地区投入产出(MRIO)方法来检验苏格兰和英国其他地区之间的欧元˜二氧化碳贸易平衡。在McGregor等人(2008)中，我们构建了一个区域间经济-环境投入-产出(IO)和社会核算矩阵(SAM)框架，使我们能够在区域层面上调查英国污染产生的责任归属方法。这有助于分析环境溢出的性质和重要性，以及区域之间是否存在环境贸易平衡(˜™)。虽然重大数据问题的存在意味着这项研究的量化结果应该被视为临时的，但我们认为，使用这样的框架使我们能够开始考虑这样的问题，例如，当苏格兰议会等权力下放机构在控制排放方面受到限制时，它能够而且应该在多大程度上负责为国家减排目标(例如英国对《京都议定书》的承诺)做出贡献，特别是在英国其他地区需求变化的情况下。然而，虽然这种分析在核算账户所涉单个时间段内的污染流量方面是有用的，但当重点放在对活动的任何边际变化的影响进行建模时，这种分析是有限的。这是因为传统的需求驱动的IO模型假设经济中的供应方是完全被动的(即所有供应都是无限弹性的)，并受到通过使用A和乘数矩阵隐含的通用Leontief(固定比例)技术的假设的进一步限制。在本文中，我们认为，在需要对活动的边际变化进行分析的情况下，更灵活的区域间可计算一般均衡方法以更现实和理论一致的方式建模行为关系，更合适，也更具信息性。为了说明我们的分析，我们比较了苏格兰和英国其他地区使用IO和CGE区域间模型在英国经济中引入正需求刺激的结果。在后者的情况下，我们展示了在区域和国家两级对需求和供应方行为进行更一致的理论建模如何影响模型结果，包括对区域间二氧化碳˜贸易平衡™的影响。
In previous work we have applied the environmental multi-region input-output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner et al (2007) to examine the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the Rest of the UK. In McGregor et al (2008) we construct an interregional economy-environment input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) framework that allows us to investigate methods of attributing responsibility for pollution generation in the UK at the regional level. This facilitates analysis of the nature and significance of environmental spillovers and the existence of an environmental ‘trade balance’ between regions. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, we argue that the use of such a framework allows us to begin to consider questions such as the extent to which a devolved authority like the Scottish Parliament can and should be responsible for contributing to national targets for reductions in emissions levels (e.g. the UK commitment to the Kyoto Protocol) when it is limited in the way it can control emissions, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the UK. However, while such analysis is useful in terms of accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. In this paper we argue that where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium approach that models behavioural relationships in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is more appropriate and informative.To illustrate our analysis, we compare the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using both IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels affect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’.