Characterizing the Risk of Infection from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Aircraft Using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
Characterizing the Risk of Infection from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Aircraft Using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01161.x
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发表时间：
2009-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Rose, Joan B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, Rachael M.;Masago, Yoshifumi;Rose, Joan B.
定量微生物风险评估用于预测商用飞机中结核分枝杆菌（MTB）传播的可能性和空间组织。在四种情况下，通过Multizone Markov模型预测了乘客的曝光：坐着或移动感染性乘客，以及有或没有过滤再循环的机舱空气。传统的指数（k = 1）和新的指数（k = 0.0218）剂量反应函数用于计算感染风险。蒙特卡洛模拟包括排放变异性。感染风险较近和船尾；未达到稳态空降浓度水平。预期发生率低至中度，在四种情况下，中央95％的范围从10（-6）到每169名乘客的10（-1）不等。与病房中活性结核病患者的测量相比，使用的排放率较低，因此在这些情况下，发射44个量子的“超级公民”可能会产生6.2例或更多情况。传染源和/或易感乘客使用呼吸保护的使用，将感染率降低到一个数量级。
Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to predict the likelihood and spatial organization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in a commercial aircraft. Passenger exposure was predicted via a multizone Markov model in four scenarios: seated or moving infectious passengers and with or without filtration of recirculated cabin air. The traditional exponential (k = 1) and a new exponential (k = 0.0218) dose-response function were used to compute infection risk. Emission variability was included by Monte Carlo simulation. Infection risks were higher nearer and aft of the source; steady state airborne concentration levels were not attained. Expected incidence was low to moderate, with the central 95% ranging from 10(-6) to 10(-1) per 169 passengers in the four scenarios. Emission rates used were low compared to measurements from active TB patients in wards, thus a "superspreader" emitting 44 quanta/h could produce 6.2 cases or more under these scenarios. Use of respiratory protection by the infectious source and/or susceptible passengers reduced infection incidence up to one order of magnitude.