The Reversed Description-Experience Gap: Disentangling Sources of Presentation Format Effects in Risky Choice
The Reversed Description-Experience Gap: Disentangling Sources of Presentation Format Effects in Risky Choice
复制标题
DOI：
10.1037/a0040103
复制
发表时间：
2016-04-01
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Fiedler, Susann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gloeckner, Andreas;Hilbig, Benjamin E.;Fiedler, Susann
以往的文献表明，风险的选择模式一般和概率加权特别是显着不同的经验为基础的预防为基础的格式相比。在2个重新分析和3个新的实验中，我们使用基于累积前景理论（CPT）的参数方法研究基于经验和基于推理的决策之间的差异。一旦控制了抽样偏差，我们总是发现典型的预防-经验差距的逆转，也就是说，与描述决策相比，经验决策对概率的敏感性降低，对小概率的权重增加。这一发现支持了这样的假设：概率估计中对平均效应的回归是两种呈现格式之间差异的重要来源。进一步的分析确定了任务特定的信息不对称普遍存在于赌博涉及确定性作为差异的第三个来源。我们提出了一种新的概念化的多个独立的来源的偏见，有助于预防经验差距，即抽样偏差和特定任务的信息不对称的一方面，回归的平均效果的概率估计的另一方面。
Previous literature has suggested that risky choice patterns in general-and probability weighting in particular-are strikingly different in experience-based as compared with description-based formats. In 2 reanalyses and 3 new experiments, we investigate differences between experience-based and description-based decisions using a parametric approach based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Once controlling for sampling biases, we consistently find a reversal of the typical description-experience gap, that is, a reduced sensitivity to probabilities and increased overweighting of small probabilities in decisions from experience as compared with decisions from descriptions. This finding supports the hypothesis that regression to the mean effects in probability estimation are a crucial source of differences between both presentation formats. Further analyses identified task specific information asymmetry prevalent in gambles involving certainty as a third source of differences. We present a novel conceptualization of multiple independent sources of bias that contribute to the description-experience gap, namely sampling biases and task specific information asymmetry on the one hand, and regression to the mean effects in probability estimation on the other hand.