Do macroeconomic shocks in the local labor market lead to child maltreatment and death?: Empirical evidence from Japan
Do macroeconomic shocks in the local labor market lead to child maltreatment and death?: Empirical evidence from Japan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.chiabu.2021.105430
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发表时间：
2022-02-01
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Noguchi, Haruko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Oikawa, Masato;Kawamura, Akira;Noguchi, Haruko
背景：日本正面临虐待儿童案件数量迅速增加的问题。虐待儿童对受害者有长期影响，失业率被认为是其强有力的预测指标。然而，在日本，很少有研究分析虐待儿童与失业率之间的因果关系，特别是后者对前者的影响。方法：利用2005年至2016年的地级市纵向数据，采用固定效应工具变量估计。该估计包括2005年按产业结构划分的全国各行业失业率的加权平均值，作为识别因果效应的工具。结果：样本期内，当地平均失业率从峰值到谷底变化了约50%。当地失业率上升 50%，导致儿童忽视案件和儿童死亡人数分别增加 80% 和 70%（在 5% 的水平上具有统计显着性）。此外，外因死亡、意外伤害和意外溺水分别增加了146%、217%和315%（在5%的水平上具有统计显着性）。结论：当地失业率是虐待儿童的危险因素，导致儿童死亡，尤其是意外溺水是儿童忽视死亡的常见原因。当当地失业率上升时，政府应分配更多的财政和人力资源用于预防措施，以防止因忽视而导致的儿童死亡。
Background: Japan is facing a rapid increase in the number of reported child maltreatment cases. Child maltreatment has long-term consequences for the victims, and unemployment rate is considered a strong predictor of it. However, only few studies have analyzed the causal relation between child maltreatment and the unemployment rate-particularly the effects of the latter on the former-in Japan.Methods: Using prefecture-level longitudinal data from 2005 to 2016, we employed a fixed effects instrumental variable estimation. The estimation included a weighted average of the national unemployment rate across industries by industrial structures in 2005 as an instrument to identify the causal effects.Results: The average local unemployment rate changed by approximately 50% from the peak to the bottom in the sample period. A 50% increase in local unemployment rates increased the number of reported child neglect cases and child deaths by 80% and 70% (statistically significant at the 5% level), respectively. Further, it increased cases of death due to external causes, unintentional injuries, and unintentional drowning by 146%, 217%, and 315% (statistically significant at the 5% level), respectively.Conclusion: The local unemployment rate is a risk factor for child maltreatment, resulting in children's death, especially as a result of unintentional drowning-the common cause of death due to child neglect. When the local unemployment rates rise, governments should allocate more financial and human resources for preventive measures to combat child deaths caused by neglect.