Identifying the key catastrophic variables of urban social-environmental resilience and early warning signal
Identifying the key catastrophic variables of urban social-environmental resilience and early warning signal
复制标题
识别城市社会环境复原力的关键灾难变量和预警信号
DOI：
10.1016/j.envint.2018.02.006
复制
发表时间：
2018-04-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitchell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Yi;Li, Yangfan;Pavao-Zuckerman, Mitchell
对可持续性的追求需要一种系统的方法来了解系统的具体动态，以适应和加强社会环境系统中的干扰。将突变理论与概率分布均衡相结合，建立了系统的社会-环境系统复原力评价模型。运用突变模型计算慢速变量与快速变量之间的弹性转换，并利用概率分布均衡分析方法，得到“弹性较弱”和“弹性较强”两种弹性转换模式。“弹性较弱”系统中出现的临界点表明，临界弹性转变可能是接近临界值的早期预警信号。探讨了土地利用和能源(快速变量)和环境污染(慢变量)相互作用的社会-环境子系统之间的灾难性变化，这也确定了维持综合社会-环境复原力的关键因素。此外，预警信号使城市系统具有适应性和对扰动的恢复能力，并为城市社会环境管理提供指导。
Pursuit of sustainability requires a systematic approach to understand a system's specific dynamics to adapt and enhance from disturbances in social-environmental systems. We developed a systematic resilience assessment of social-environmental systems by connecting catastrophe theory and probability distribution equilibrium. Catastrophe models were used to calculate resilience shifts between slow and fast variables; afterwards, two resilience transition modes ("Less resilient" or "More resilient") were addressed by using probability distribution equilibrium analysis. A tipping point that occurs in "Less resilient" system suggests that the critical resilience transition can be an early warning signal of approaching threshold. Catastrophic shifts were explored between the interacting social-environmental sub-systems of land use and energy (fast variables) and environmental pollution (slow variables), which also identifies the critical factors in maintaining the integrated social-environmental resilience. Furthermore, the early warning signals enable the adaptability of urban systems and their resilience to perturbations, and provide guidelines for urban social-environmental management.