The spatial and temporal dynamics of voter preference determinants in four U.S. presidential elections (2008–2020)
The spatial and temporal dynamics of voter preference determinants in four U.S. presidential elections (2008–2020)
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DOI：
10.1111/tgis.12880
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发表时间：
2021-12
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Ziqi Li;A. Fotheringham
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ziqi Li;A. Fotheringham
影响人们投票偏好的政治和社会进程可能与地理位置有关，地理位置因地而异，并在地方、区域和国家层面上发挥作用。本文采用一种局部建模技术，即多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR），研究了2008-2020年美国总统大选期间县级社会经济因素对选民偏好影响的时空变化。我们认为，MGWR模型中的局部截距是空间背景对选民偏好影响的一个指标，不仅可以将其与其他社会经济因素的影响分开，而且需要将其与其他社会经济因素的影响分开，以防止这些其他因素的指标出现错误的说明偏差。我们还发现，在背景如何影响选举结果方面，全国各地存在着强烈而一致的分歧。
Political and social processes that shape people's voting preferences might be linked to geographical location, varying from place to place, and operating at local, regional, and national scales. Here, we use a local modeling technique, multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), to examine spatial and temporal variations in the influences of county‐level socio‐economic factors on voter preference during the 2008–2020 U.S. presidential elections. We argue that the local intercept in the MGWR model is an indicator of the effect of spatial context on voter preference and not only can this be separated from the effect of other socio‐economic factors, but it needs to be in order to prevent misspecification bias in the indicators of these other factors. We also identify strong and consistent divisions across the country in how context shapes election results.