Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments
Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments
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DOI：
10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5123
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Hardy, Anthony
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Benford, Diane;Halldorsson, Thorhallur;Hardy, Anthony
不确定性分析是识别科学知识的局限性并评估其对科学结论的影响的过程。因此，它与EFSA的所有科学评估相关，也是必要的，以确保评估结论为决策提供可靠的信息。不确定性分析的形式和程度以及报告结论的方式因每项评估的性质和背景以及存在的不确定性程度而有很大差异。本文件提供了关于如何确定哪些不确定性分析选项适用于每项评估以及如何应用这些选项的简明指南。它附有一个单独的支持性意见，解释了本指南背后的关键概念和原则，并更详细地描述了方法。(c)2018年欧洲食品安全局。由John Wiley and Sons Ltd代表欧洲食品安全局出版的EFSA期刊。
Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific conclusions. It is therefore relevant in all EFSA's scientific assessments and also necessary, to ensure that the assessment conclusions provide reliable information for decision-making. The form and extent of uncertainty analysis, and how the conclusions should be reported, vary widely depending on the nature and context of each assessment and the degree of uncertainty that is present. This document provides concise guidance on how to identify which options for uncertainty analysis are appropriate in each assessment, and how to apply them. It is accompanied by a separate, supporting opinion that explains the key concepts and principles behind this Guidance, and describes the methods in more detail. (c) 2018 European Food Safety Authority. EFSA Journal published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of European Food Safety Authority.