Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics
Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0407293101
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发表时间：
2004-11-30
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Earn, DJD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dushoff, J;Plotkin, JB;Earn, DJD
流感发病率在全世界温带地区表现出强烈的季节性波动，将该疾病的死亡率和发病率负担集中在每年的几个月内。流感季节性的原因仍然难以捉摸。在这里，我们表明，发病率的大振荡可能是由不可察觉的小季节性变化的流感传播率，被放大的动态共振。
influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.