Are Contingent Jobs Dead Ends or Stepping Stones to Regular Jobs? Evidence from a Structural Estimation
Are Contingent Jobs Dead Ends or Stepping Stones to Regular Jobs? Evidence from a Structural Estimation
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临时工作是死胡同还是常规工作的垫脚石？
DOI：
10.1016/j.labeco.2010.12.010
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Ryuichi Tanaka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Julen Esteban-Pretel;Ryo Nakajima;Ryuichi Tanaka
近年来，在许多发达经济体，兼职、派遣和临时工的比例有所增加。这些工人的平均工资和福利较低，就业稳定性也较低。本文分析了最初从事这类工作对青年工人就业生涯的影响。我们建立了一个在职和离职的求职模型，使用日本的数据进行结构估计的模型参数和模拟职业生涯的路径，以研究就业的初始选择的影响，在未来有一个固定的工作的概率和福利的工人。我们发现，虽然临时工作既不是通往正规就业的垫脚石，也不是死胡同，但在日本，临时工作对个人的福利有持久的影响。
The proportion of part-time, dispatch, and temporary workers has increased in many developed economies in recent years. These workers receive lower average wages and benefits, and are subject to lower employment stability. This paper analyzes the effects of initially taking such jobs on the employment careers of young workers. We build an on-and-off-the-job search model, using Japanese data to perform a structural estimation of the model parameters and simulate career paths, in order to study the effects of the initial choice of employment on the probability of having a regular job in the future and on the welfare of the worker. We find that although contingent jobs are neither stepping stones towards regular employment nor dead ends, starting a career in a contingent job has a lasting effect on the welfare of the individual in Japan.