Quantifying global potential for coral evolutionary response to climate change
Quantifying global potential for coral evolutionary response to climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-021-01037-2
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发表时间：
2021-05-17
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Donner, Simon D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Logan, Cheryl A.;Dunne, John P.;Donner, Simon D.
作者模拟了藻类共生体的洗牌和进化在珊瑚对全球变暖和海洋酸化的适应力中的作用。他们发现，洗牌比进化更有效，并且由于变暖率和适应能力的相互作用，显示出全球脆弱性模式。其中一个例子可能是藻类共生体在全球变暖和海洋酸化情况下设定珊瑚耐热性方面的适应作用。使用一个全球性的生态和进化模型的竞争分支和堆积珊瑚形态，我们表明共生体洗牌（向类群耐热性增加）是更有效的比共生体进化延迟珊瑚覆盖下降，但更强的变暖率（高排放的情况下）超过这些适应过程的能力，并限制珊瑚的持久性。相对于变暖，酸化对珊瑚礁退化率的影响很小。珊瑚礁易受气候影响的全球模式对升温速度和适应能力的相互作用很敏感，不能单独用任何一个因素来预测。总的来说，我们的研究结果显示了空间分辨的适应机制模型如何为保护决策提供信息。
The authors model the role of algal symbiont shuffling and evolution in coral resilience to warming and ocean acidification, globally. They find that shuffling is more effective than evolution, and show global patterns of vulnerability due to the interaction of warming rate and adaptive capacity.Incorporating species' ability to adaptively respond to climate change is critical for robustly predicting persistence. One such example could be the adaptive role of algal symbionts in setting coral thermal tolerance under global warming and ocean acidification. Using a global ecological and evolutionary model of competing branching and mounding coral morphotypes, we show symbiont shuffling (towards taxa with increased heat tolerance) was more effective than symbiont evolution in delaying coral-cover declines, but stronger warming rates (high emissions scenarios) outpace the ability of these adaptive processes and limit coral persistence. Acidification has a small impact on reef degradation rates relative to warming. Global patterns in coral reef vulnerability to climate are sensitive to the interaction of warming rate and adaptive capacity and cannot be predicted by either factor alone. Overall, our results show how models of spatially resolved adaptive mechanisms can inform conservation decisions.