Ensemble Based Diagnosis of the Track Errors of Super Typhoon Mangkhut (2018)
Ensemble Based Diagnosis of the Track Errors of Super Typhoon Mangkhut (2018)
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DOI：
10.1007/s13351-020-9086-x
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发表时间：
2020-04
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Ling Huang;Q. Wan;Chunxia Liu;Huijun Huang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ling Huang;Q. Wan;Chunxia Liu;Huijun Huang
超强台风山竹（2018）因其寿命长、强度大而成为2018年影响最大的台风。中短期（确定性和概率性预报）的运行轨迹预报存在很大的不确定性，预报着陆点随提前期的不同而变化。本研究应用高分辨率ECMWF预报集合来研究山竹预报轨迹偏差产生的主要因素和机制。对具有最大轨道偏差的组合进行了分析，以检查可能的偏差相关因素。结果表明，环境导向流是南向航迹误差的主要原因，方差贡献率为72%。热带气旋（TC）的大小差异以及TC与副热带高压（SH）的相互作用是造成跟踪误差的另外两个关键因素。特别是较大的热带气旋可能导致南半球的侵蚀更加强烈，从而引起大范围环境的显着变化，最终导致热带气旋进一步北移。
Super Typhoon Mangkhut (2018) was the most high-impact typhoon in 2018 because of its long lifespan and significant intensity. The operational track forecasts in the short-to-medium range (deterministic and probabilistic forecast) showed a great uncertainty and the forecast landing points varied with different lead times. This study applied ensembles of high-resolution ECMWF forecasts to investigate the major factors and mechanisms of the bias production of the Mangkhut forecast track. The ensembles with the largest track bias were analyzed to examine the possible bias associated factors. The results suggested that environmental steering flows were the main cause for the erroneous southward track error with a variance contribution of 72%. The tropical cyclone (TC) size difference and the interaction of the TC with the subtropical high (SH) were other two key factors that contributed to the track error. Particularly, larger TCs may have led to a stronger erosion of the southern part of the SH, and thus induced significant changes in the large-scale environment and eventually resulted in an additional northward movement of TC.