An approach to build an event set of European wind storms based on ECMWF EPS
An approach to build an event set of European wind storms based on ECMWF EPS
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基于ECMWF EPS构建欧洲风暴事件集的方法
DOI：
10.5194/nhess-16-255-2016
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
D. Majewski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Osinski;P. Lorenz;T. Kruschke;M. Voigt;U. Ulbrich;G. Leckebusch;E. Faust;T. Hofherr;D. Majewski
摘要。根据欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）整体预报系统（EPS）的地面风预报，估计了在当前气候条件下欧洲风暴的性质。虽然电子天气预报系统的目的是根据天气的观测情况，提供一系列可能的天气发展的预报资料，但我们将其档案应用于气候学范畴。它提供了大量对观测到的风暴事件的修正，包括在现实中没有发生的风暴。因此，有可能创建一个大的风暴事件样本，这些风暴事件完全源于一个物理上一致的模式，其集合传播代表了所覆盖时期可行的替代风暴实现。本文表明，EPS中大量可识别事件可用于减少以冬季风暴为重点的广泛研究领域的不确定性。在本研究中，使用一种基于瞬时10 m风速的第98百分位数的局部超过的算法来识别和跟踪风暴的整个生命周期，该算法与风暴严重程度测量相关。在消除由于操作系统的重大修改而引起的数据集中的不均匀性后，计算风暴强度、风暴大小和风暴持续时间的分布。均一化EPS风暴数据集的总体主要特征与ERA-Interim数据集的基本一致，适合于这些极端事件的气候学研究。本文还介绍了EPS在气候方面的实际效益。最大风暴强度和风场大小随风暴持续时间呈线性增加。对于长期事件，这种关系不能从稀疏的ERA-Interim样本中识别出来，因为再分析中的事件数量不足以表示这些特征。
Abstract. The properties of European windstorms under present climate conditions are estimated on the basis of surface wind forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). While the EPS is designed to provide forecast information of the range of possible weather developments starting from the observed state of weather, we use its archive in a climatological context. It provides a large number of modifications of observed storm events and includes storms that did not occur in reality. Thus it is possible to create a large sample of storm events, which entirely originate from a physically consistent model, whose ensemble spread represents feasible alternative storm realizations of the covered period. This paper shows that the huge amount of identifiable events in the EPS is applicable to reduce uncertainties in a wide range of fields of research focusing on winter storms. Windstorms are identified and tracked in this study over their lifetime using an algorithm based on the local exceedance of the 98th percentile of instantaneous 10 m wind speed, which is associated with a storm severity measure. After removing inhomogeneities in the data set arising from major modifications of the operational system, the distributions of storm severity, storm size, and storm duration are computed. The overall principal properties of the homogenized EPS storm data set are in good agreement with storms from the ERA-Interim data set, making it suitable for climatological investigations of these extreme events. A demonstrated benefit in the climatological context by the EPS is presented. It gives clear evidence of a linear increase of maximum storm intensity and wind field size with storm duration. This relation is not recognizable from a sparse ERA-Interim sample for long-lasting events, as the number of events in the reanalysis is not sufficient to represent these characteristics.
1979 年至 2012 年欧洲极端风暴的 XWS 开放获取目录
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Roberts J
通讯作者：
Roberts J